Tennis · resolved market
Will Taylor Fritz win the 2025 ATP Toronto tournament?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9ce57e8cce47b61787f1852e5a955ec9352b48f8c9c4bd85e7c6c9df4147848f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,641
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,992
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,641 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 4,167$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.92 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd4…ce48backed Yes | 39c | 3,314$1,287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,286.86 | 96 | 42.7%41 W · 55 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed No | 79c | 2,428$1,912 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$515.55 | 187 | 40.6%76 W · 111 L | +13.2wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6f19…b9ffbacked No | 76c | 2,000$1,528 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$472.47 | 145 | 40.7%59 W · 86 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89f1…ad52backed Yes | 24c | 1,633$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11ee…0ab9backed Yes | 34c | 1,471$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.14 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbaa…59b8backed Yes | 40c | 1,421$571 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$570.99 | 323 | 48.3%156 W · 167 L | -10.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5159…d7aebacked No | 63c | 1,000$634 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$366.49 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09b6…f48dbacked Yes | 15c | 1,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 318 | 50.3%160 W · 158 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd986…1320backed Yes | 22c | 1,000$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca38…460bbacked Yes | 20c | 996.29$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.37 | 183 | 38.8%71 W · 112 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe31a…adffbacked Yes | 16c | 970.71$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 252 | 44.4%112 W · 140 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdebb…eedbbacked No | 61c | 950$580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370.5 | 82 | 41.5%34 W · 48 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x168a…da29backed No | 73c | 869.21$636 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.57 | 88 | 54.5%48 W · 40 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed No | 75c | 350.53$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.18 | 1,090 | 35.9%391 W · 699 L | +16.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Yes | 29c | 346.76$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 639 | 42.4%271 W · 368 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3bcf…e582backed Yes | 26c | 312$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.86 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xefd4…0895backed Yes | 26c | 260.94$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbcbf…4ffabacked Yes | 21c | 200$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.72 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe2cd…bb91backed Yes | 17c | 148.79$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48e3…c148backed Yes | 30c | 131.15$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.35 | 157 | 24.8%39 W · 118 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa6f…7e67backed No | 74c | 103.69$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.77 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb410…7736backed No | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 78 | 50%39 W · 39 L | +7.9wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fb…2b2abacked Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 44 | 75%33 W · 11 L | +5.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3ab6…cfecbacked Yes | 16c | 93.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 129 | 27.1%35 W · 94 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x825e…904fbacked No | 72c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a31…f2f0backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d8c…757abacked No | 61c | 19.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Taylor Fritz win the 2025 ATP Toronto tournament?this page
- Will Alejandro Davidovich Fokina win the 2025 ATP Toronto tournament?No won
- Will Alex De Minaur win the 2025 ATP Toronto tournament?No won
- Will Alex Michelsen win the 2025 ATP Toronto tournament?No won
- Will Alexander Zverev win the 2025 ATP Toronto tournament?No won
- Will Alexei Popyrin win the 2025 ATP Toronto tournament?No won
- Will Andrey Rublev win the 2025 ATP Toronto tournament?No won
- Will Ben Shelton win the 2025 ATP Toronto tournament?Yes won
- Will Camilo Ugo Carabelli win the 2025 ATP Toronto tournament?No won
- Will Frances Tiafoe win the 2025 ATP Toronto tournament?No won
- Will Holger Rune win the 2025 ATP Toronto tournament?No won
- Will Jaume Munar win the 2025 ATP Toronto tournament?No won
- Will Jiri Lehecka win the 2025 ATP Toronto tournament?No won
- Will Karen Khachanov win the 2025 ATP Toronto tournament?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.