Europa Conference League · resolved market
Nottingham Forest FC vs. Ferencvárosi TC: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x72f4e8be9c0618644dfe46559b9b683c651872f0a5c8c4c8a8c0a06829983aba
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,159
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,257
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,159 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb8ef…abd4backed Under | 0c | 8,119$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.51 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.19per pick | 14cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 73c | 273.2$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.87 | 919 | 50.9%468 W · 451 L | +15.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 72c | 266.21$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.6 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…be4fbacked Over | 27c | 185.19$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.19 | 69 | 29%20 W · 49 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x68e0…a3a6backed Over | 27c | 141$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.93 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +27%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0401…2f0ebacked Under | 73c | 139.99$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.19 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -3.6wins | -0.24per pick | 44cpaid | -63.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 63c | 134.8$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.36 | 769 | 41.9%322 W · 447 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 48c | 123.42$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.85 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d37…5b73backed Under | 56c | 98.21$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d14…1eb4backed Over | 27c | 92.59$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.59 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +2.4wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x581b…0290backed Over | 26c | 83$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.42 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 33cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…5ab9backed Over | 26c | 81$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.94 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x051b…09d4backed Over | 41c | 70.73$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.73 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2bdf…56f5backed Over | 31c | 64.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.52 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.7wins | +0.23per pick | 36cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x37ea…6cb9backed Over | 27c | 58.52$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.72 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…7fc1backed Over | 30c | 58$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.8 | 78 | 42.3%33 W · 45 L | -5.2wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over | 38c | 56$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.72 | 384 | 53.1%204 W · 180 L | +11.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9487…54bbbacked Over | 32c | 47.2$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.16 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8bd…8deabacked Under | 74c | 39$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.86 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6203…5192backed Under | 73c | 34$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.82 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 52c | 29.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.28 | 351 | 58.1%204 W · 147 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2342…d7cebacked Under | 73c | 29$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.17 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.21per pick | 61cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e75…e81dbacked Under | 74c | 27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7bd…d82dbacked Under | 74c | 26$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.24 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdeaa…80cdbacked Under | 73c | 25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.25 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.35per pick | 60cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae69…0c24backed Under | 73c | 24$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.52 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e34…4480backed Under | 51c | 22.55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeccd…d68abacked Under | 75c | 20.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.15 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 377 | 50.9%192 W · 185 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12af…0730backed Under | 73c | 18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.14 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7500…ae85backed Under | 74c | 16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f3a…9bdbbacked Under | 74c | 14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 64cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x14cd…1716backed Under | 74c | 14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.27per pick | 70cpaid | -37%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Nottingham Forest FC vs. Ferencvárosi TC: O/U 3.5this page
- Nottingham Forest FC vs. Ferencvárosi TC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Nottingham Forest FC vs. Ferencvárosi TC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Nottingham Forest FC vs. Ferencvárosi TC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Nottingham Forest FC vs. Ferencvárosi TC: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.