Europa Conference League · resolved market
Nottingham Forest FC vs. Ferencvárosi TC: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc0386fadecf6bbe94b0d171b0f8372f52b35c8e29dca503e6db65fd48246b44c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,221
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,648
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,221 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc311…44fcbacked Over | 49c | 5,130$2,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,630.12 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +4.1wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 51c | 2,619$1,335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,334.99 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 45c | 2,413$1,090 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,090.3 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6d1…62eabacked Under | 46c | 1,096$504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$504.15 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e16…a795backed Under | 53c | 943.4$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9e3…ae22backed Over | 51c | 694$354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340.06 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +129.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8415…dfe1backed Under | 51c | 561.19$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.29 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Under | 51c | 519.68$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.14 | 63 | 30.2%19 W · 44 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d50…6963backed Under | 51c | 383.05$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13a5…b620backed Over | 80c | 300$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 77cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaffc…fab4backed Over | 48c | 200$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 55cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa35f…b58fbacked Over | 51c | 151.46$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.22 | 55 | 40%22 W · 33 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 41c | 123.28$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.31 | 769 | 41.9%322 W · 447 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7113…dba4backed Over | 41c | 121.95$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.95 | 266 | 47.4%126 W · 140 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1d…219ebacked Under | 51c | 118.63$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 80 | 62.5%50 W · 30 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x309d…3a8abacked Over | 48c | 109$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.68 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf830…c2dbbacked Over | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.17 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1f3…d99cbacked Under | 51c | 103.81$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.25 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | +3.7wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0ccc…dbcdbacked Over | 44c | 102$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.12 | 76 | 36.8%28 W · 48 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 48c | 101.9$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.39 | 919 | 50.9%468 W · 451 L | +15.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01d3…a1f8backed Under | 48c | 91$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd53…a861backed Over | 49c | 91$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.41 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1889…0714backed Over | 53c | 70$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.9 | 98 | 55.1%54 W · 44 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25c0…c187backed Under | 51c | 64.33$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.81 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 54c | 64.25$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.42 | 702 | 39.3%276 W · 426 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14c3…0262backed Over | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.02 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b2…4ab2backed Under | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b08…8f40backed Under | 53c | 49.96$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.48 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.23per pick | 60cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x727d…1589backed Under | 52c | 42.75$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.24 | 50 | 26%13 W · 37 L | -6.2wins | -0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -51%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3bcd…1a94backed Over | 48c | 41.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.26 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9219…5ca1backed Under | 50c | 40.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60c2…8052backed Over | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x958d…3501backed Over | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 132 | 56.8%75 W · 57 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd85…6a32backed Over | 52c | 40.11$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.12 | 90 | 56.7%51 W · 39 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc906…6e03backed Over | 44c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.58 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f7e…c230backed Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a30…b094backed Over | 52c | 38.73$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.73 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | -3.8wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7bd…d82dbacked Under | 51c | 38$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.38 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Under | 50c | 35.48$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.85 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x549c…1025backed Under | 50c | 31.77$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…ad8dbacked Over | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.61 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3add…e482backed Under | 52c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd485…871fbacked Over | 50c | 29.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.85 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92a1…658bbacked Under | 52c | 29.04$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6162…e856backed Under | 52c | 26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.52 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Under | 49c | 25.13$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 149 | 63.1%94 W · 55 L | +8.7wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa41…f05dbacked Over | 48c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.34per pick | 46cpaid | +57.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1313…866abacked Under | 52c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa60c…b395backed Under | 51c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.21per pick | 61cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x00fe…eff7backed Over | 48c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.44 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2f9…3f4fbacked Under | 51c | 20.54$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04c0…0927backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Nottingham Forest FC vs. Ferencvárosi TC: O/U 2.5this page
- Nottingham Forest FC vs. Ferencvárosi TC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Nottingham Forest FC vs. Ferencvárosi TC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Nottingham Forest FC vs. Ferencvárosi TC: O/U 3.5Over won
- Nottingham Forest FC vs. Ferencvárosi TC: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.