Europa Conference League · resolved market
Nottingham Forest FC vs. Ferencvárosi TC: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe3e1d0e6037d00991edd084b7052a7cbd4f67dce542079950a3d3648f1b02aa8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,799
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,917
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,799 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 25c | 1,750$436 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$435.86 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8415…dfe1backed Under | 25c | 712.97$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.8 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x455c…1c25backed Over | 75c | 654.83$493 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.7 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6481…b1bfbacked Over | 74c | 405.68$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.68 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf0e…3197backed Over | 74c | 135.14$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.14 | 70 | 67.1%47 W · 23 L | +4.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bc…3667backed Over | 76c | 133.61$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.07 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x802f…e008backed Over | 76c | 131.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.58 | 83 | 69.9%58 W · 25 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 71cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3171…0e8abacked Over | 76c | 126.45$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c36…c074backed Over | 76c | 110.95$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.63 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc36…180fbacked Over | 76c | 110.37$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.49 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 64cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4aff…c91bbacked Under | 27c | 103$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.81 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf572…065abacked Over | 73c | 98$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.46 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5cf…3f01backed Over | 76c | 80.32$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a2…1467backed Over | 74c | 78.76$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.48 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa26e…17e3backed Over | 74c | 60.19$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.65 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a46…ba91backed Over | 75c | 53.33$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 50 | 66%33 W · 17 L | +4.7wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd69e…3393backed Over | 74c | 47.3$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6187…f8a0backed Over | 76c | 38.89$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a91…450abacked Over | 76c | 36.08$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.66 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc752…1f6cbacked Over | 76c | 35.42$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6894…59d8backed Over | 74c | 35$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0068…d7b0backed Over | 73c | 35$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd84f…0475backed Over | 73c | 34$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.18 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +3.2wins | +0.32per pick | 58cpaid | +62.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x09db…7384backed Over | 73c | 32$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.64 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53e8…c577backed Over | 75c | 30.67$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.67 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x646a…7eb2backed Over | 76c | 29.38$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc36…3054backed Over | 76c | 22.67$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e59…1e68backed Over | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81c7…8b51backed Over | 76c | 18.88$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.53 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38dc…4c5fbacked Over | 73c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.59 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9cb…4593backed Over | 70c | 16.85$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.05 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f3a…9bdbbacked Over | 73c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.78 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 64cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e29…c992backed Over | 73c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.78 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Nottingham Forest FC vs. Ferencvárosi TC: O/U 1.5this page
- Nottingham Forest FC vs. Ferencvárosi TC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Nottingham Forest FC vs. Ferencvárosi TC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Nottingham Forest FC vs. Ferencvárosi TC: O/U 3.5Over won
- Nottingham Forest FC vs. Ferencvárosi TC: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.