Weather · resolved market
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on July 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x72f85de3d94d60b31db0e0427bc88c712076f42eeb482c3fa256730816ba6083
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,356
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,515
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,356 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd17e…7a0cbacked Yes | 56c | 500$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.29 | 189 | 45.5%86 W · 103 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2fc…5bd4backed Yes | 53c | 188.26$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 386 | 33.4%129 W · 257 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0546…17a9backed Yes | 53c | 186.71$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.17 | 47 | 70.2%33 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 53c | 150$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.9 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 68c | 137$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.22 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 41c | 128.7$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.36 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a5f…1a13backed No | 45c | 110.46$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.46 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | -7.2wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 45c | 106.13$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.69 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 44c | 105$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.42 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb425…ed54backed Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 51cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb699…4e20backed No | 45c | 93.87$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.52 | 213 | 52.1%111 W · 102 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 44c | 91.84$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.43 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3b…256ebacked Yes | 38c | 90$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.2 | 233 | 62.2%145 W · 88 L | +33.5wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 51c | 84.49$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed Yes | 48c | 80$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.4 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf183…83ccbacked No | 47c | 74.02$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.14 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -3.8wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…8ca3backed Yes | 47c | 70.02$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.81 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -76.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2141…7fa2backed Yes | 45c | 67.08$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.29 | 182 | 19.2%35 W · 147 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdab0…8e30backed Yes | 52c | 65.26$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5678…d8b4backed No | 56c | 61.45$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.11 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 44c | 54.32$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.36 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 31c | 48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.04 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a5f…d2d9backed Yes | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -23%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 49c | 35.52$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.52 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 53c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.18 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 49c | 29.55$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.21 | 443 | 66.1%293 W · 150 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a7a…8465backed Yes | 55c | 28.16$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.56 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa09d…af80backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 211 | 50.7%107 W · 104 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e16…7f14backed No | 42c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 220 | 64.5%142 W · 78 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x091c…81fdbacked Yes | 53c | 22.57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2978…e738backed Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 552 | 61.6%340 W · 212 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee02…ce88backed No | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 107 | 64.5%69 W · 38 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb431…82ecbacked No | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 297 | 69.4%206 W · 91 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ee0…79e8backed Yes | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on July 15?this page
- Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on July 15?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on July 15?Yes won
- Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on July 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.