Olympics · resolved market
Will Caeleb Dressel (USA) win Gold in Men's 100m Butterfly?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7315b803317a4b9fb6ad497f62e72128237071dc464525af0a33600614ef1e16
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Olympicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,817
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,790
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,817 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Olympics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Olympics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4c03…0cc1backed No | 67c | 1,922$1,289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$633.35 | 134 | 19.4%26 W · 108 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbd…af92backed No | 69c | 1,589$1,101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$488 | 51 | 33.3%17 W · 34 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c94…5b86backed Yes | 31c | 1,075$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd8…741bbacked Yes | 39c | 887.44$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa18b…3aedbacked Yes | 32c | 780$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2a6…417abacked Yes | 32c | 500$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e82…64abbacked No | 73c | 500$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa75c…895ebacked Yes | 32c | 472.42$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.05 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -38%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa452…fc8abacked Yes | 35c | 350$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3aa4…c371backed Yes | 30c | 300$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x182b…f022backed No | 69c | 266.21$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.6 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +70.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6650…d38ebacked Yes | 35c | 250$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.5 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +2.5wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +104.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x891b…eee1backed Yes | 30c | 250$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…87cfbacked No | 73c | 242.72$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.53 | 82 | 36.6%30 W · 52 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cb…b857backed No | 60c | 120.17$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.05 | 40 | 67.5%27 W · 13 L | +7.5wins | +0.19per pick | 49cpaid | +46.2%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x0da7…ca6cbacked Yes | 29c | 86.21$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -3.8wins | -0.31per pick | 56cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6884…517cbacked Yes | 43c | 80.21$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.49 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa686…3a30backed Yes | 29c | 50.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b55…02f8backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x546f…a6d1backed No | 73c | 45.21$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.21 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cde…8f7fbacked Yes | 32c | 43.91$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6cd…a8d9backed No | 71c | 40.3$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc160…189dbacked No | 71c | 36.4$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +46.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Olympics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Caeleb Dressel (USA) win Gold in Men's 100m Butterfly?this page
- Will Josh Liendo (CAN) win Gold in Men's 100m Butterfly?No won
- Will Kristof Milak (HUN) win Gold in Men's 100m Butterfly?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.