Tennis · resolved market
Cherbourg: Alex Knaff vs Niels Visker
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x732f150b0a820ba89b01e58f2444a2fe86b8d1267325dc60cbab1164ea2daca2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Alex Knaffof Alex Knaff, Niels Visker
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,711
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,711 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Niels Visker | 8c | 3,426$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.25 | 2,746 | 30.8%846 W · 1,900 L | -67.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6aad…20aebacked Niels Visker | 59c | 2,526$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 524 | 60.9%319 W · 205 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Alex Knaff | 51c | 1,202$610 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$591.85 | 3,072 | 44.9%1,378 W · 1,694 L | -30.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -23%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Alex Knaff | 41c | 500$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295 | 4,076 | 39.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L | +93.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Niels Visker | 17c | 399.11$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.4 | 2,865 | 44.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L | +6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd038…8f51backed Alex Knaff | 54c | 301.35$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.93 | 4,288 | 40.5%1,737 W · 2,551 L | -139.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f41…5c9fbacked Alex Knaff | 39c | 299.56$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.73 | 158 | 48.7%77 W · 81 L | +7.1wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Niels Visker | 33c | 258.99$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.67 | 2,761 | 53.9%1,487 W · 1,274 L | +73.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Alex Knaff | 39c | 200$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122 | 3,871 | 35%1,353 W · 2,518 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf479…c8d4backed Niels Visker | 61c | 192.28$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.29 | 28 | 78.6%22 W · 6 L | +2.9wins | +0.10per pick | 68cpaid | +15%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5661…6323backed Niels Visker | 78c | 188.32$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.64 | 102 | 67.6%69 W · 33 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed Niels Visker | 37c | 164.15$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1,615 | 50.6%817 W · 798 L | -17.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fab…708bbacked Alex Knaff | 40c | 120$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 1,276 | 30.4%388 W · 888 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70ac…0c7dbacked Niels Visker | 47c | 118.4$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.19 | 2,537 | 53.6%1,361 W · 1,176 L | +61.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91c0…e4ccbacked Niels Visker | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 515 | 39.8%205 W · 310 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd866…55e0backed Niels Visker | 34c | 88.97$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.08 | 384 | 60.4%232 W · 152 L | +29.2wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xde9f…d43cbacked Alex Knaff | 67c | 88.8$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.64 | 6,599 | 50.7%3,343 W · 3,256 L | +259.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd88a…1eefbacked Alex Knaff | 43c | 84$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.88 | 544 | 34.2%186 W · 358 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Niels Visker | 23c | 78.87$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.39 | 7,816 | 50.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L | +95.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94d4…a896backed Niels Visker | 57c | 70.18$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 96 | 52.1%50 W · 46 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Alex Knaff | 62c | 67.55$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.67 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Alex Knaff | 41c | 58.02$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.23 | 1,973 | 46.3%914 W · 1,059 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Alex Knaff | 46c | 50.6$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.12 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe496…4d8bbacked Alex Knaff | 43c | 45$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.65 | 182 | 33.5%61 W · 121 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf69b…d240backed Niels Visker | 55c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 169 | 59.2%100 W · 69 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef5c…26f2backed Alex Knaff | 72c | 34.72$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.72 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +3.3wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d41…2231backed Niels Visker | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ede…3e71backed Niels Visker | 73c | 30.67$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.39 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x613f…6463backed Alex Knaff | 37c | 29$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.27 | 59 | 37.3%22 W · 37 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5046…7676backed Alex Knaff | 77c | 20.59$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.68 | 20 | 80%16 W · 4 L | +3.2wins | +0.16per pick | 64cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Alex Knaff | 68c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.44 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Alex Knaff | 74c | 16.36$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.25 | 1,923 | 55.4%1,066 W · 857 L | -44.9wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x435e…96c1backed Alex Knaff | 71c | 14.1$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.09 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cherbourg: Alex Knaff vs Niels Viskerthis page
- Set 1 Winner: Knaff vs ViskerKnaff won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.