NFL · resolved market
Saints vs. Buccaneers: O/U 41.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x73301eaf3c7fa120afa3bf98b3aded879a0f12cb9e67faefad8c89dc6b046bc0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $45,502
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $45,559
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,502 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1117…3532backed Under | 52c | 13,935$7,206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,205.72 | 312 | 40.7%127 W · 185 L | -22.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Under | 50c | 10,800$5,350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,349.73 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under | 52c | 10,000$5,150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,150 | 513 | 52.2%268 W · 245 L | +16.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Over | 48c | 9,902$4,753 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,149 | 831 | 47.8%397 W · 434 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x201c…58bfbacked Over | 50c | 8,000$4,020 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,980 | 74 | 64.9%48 W · 26 L | +9.8wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 50c | 6,833$3,416 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,416.8 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 48c | 5,332$2,559 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,772.64 | 736 | 51.2%377 W · 359 L | +25.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 48c | 5,000$2,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,600 | 758 | 52.5%398 W · 360 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0db…f44ebacked Over | 49c | 4,000$1,960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,040 | 152 | 52.6%80 W · 72 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2c2…4de7backed Over | 49c | 2,000$980 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,020 | 224 | 46.4%104 W · 120 L | +11.7wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c6f…014ebacked Under | 51c | 1,020$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520.2 | 62 | 33.9%21 W · 41 L | -6.4wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf9fe…366bbacked Under | 52c | 1,000$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520 | 362 | 46.7%169 W · 193 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Under | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 112 | 55.4%62 W · 50 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 48c | 1,000$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520 | 568 | 52.3%297 W · 271 L | +26.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ec…e987backed Over | 52c | 792.07$410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$382.07 | 159 | 44%70 W · 89 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 47c | 512.65$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.95 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6036…d2ccbacked Over | 48c | 418$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.36 | 121 | 51.2%62 W · 59 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Under | 50c | 310$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155 | 236 | 47%111 W · 125 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb89…46f1backed Over | 49c | 300$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04eb…36a7backed Over | 50c | 300$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 193 | 61.7%119 W · 74 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Over | 48c | 250$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130 | 192 | 40.1%77 W · 115 L | -16.2wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Over | 49c | 244.9$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.9 | 280 | 47.5%133 W · 147 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d4e…18debacked Under | 51c | 199.99$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 117 | 52.1%61 W · 56 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd995…9bcbbacked Over | 49c | 122.45$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.45 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe43b…f955backed Over | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.04 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Over | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 243 | 52.7%128 W · 115 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f23…b19ebacked Over | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.02 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | -6.6wins | -0.10per pick | 59cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4bdf…9652backed Over | 49c | 45$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.95 | 103 | 56.3%58 W · 45 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedb5…ce8ebacked Under | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b38…4d61backed Over | 49c | 29.23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.91 | 86 | 53.5%46 W · 40 L | +8.1wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Saints vs. Buccaneers: O/U 41.5this page
- Saints vs. BuccaneersSaints won
- Saints vs. Buccaneers: O/U 42.5Over won
- Saints vs. Buccaneers: O/U 43.5Over won
- Spread: Buccaneers (-7.5)Saints won
- Spread: Buccaneers (-8.5)Saints won
- Spread: Buccaneers (-9.5)Saints won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.