South American Leagues · resolved market
Spread: CA Lanús (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x733624d0dc97c012425e79a5515fe9198656d7506b7a2b342590f22dbe2b514b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- LDU de Quitoof CA Lanús, LDU de Quito
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $95,078
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $96,985
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $95,078 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdb22…6478backed CA Lanús | 40c | 71,708$28,677 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28,677.47 | 294 | 46.6%137 W · 157 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed LDU de Quito | 60c | 44,855$26,863 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,992.15 | 429 | 62.2%267 W · 162 L | +10.7wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed LDU de Quito | 60c | 13,137$7,915 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,222.04 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa975…42eebacked CA Lanús | 0c | 10,017$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.36 | 199 | 55.8%111 W · 88 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed LDU de Quito | 60c | 3,000$1,785 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,215 | 170 | 55.3%94 W · 76 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d8…99aebacked LDU de Quito | 66c | 2,043$1,348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$695.05 | 51 | 64.7%33 W · 18 L | +3.8wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked LDU de Quito | 60c | 2,004$1,193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$811.23 | 1,668 | 51.7%863 W · 805 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed LDU de Quito | 60c | 1,574$943 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$631.11 | 1,302 | 50.2%653 W · 649 L | -13.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed LDU de Quito | 65c | 1,510$975 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$535.45 | 422 | 50.2%212 W · 210 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xceee…d39ebacked LDU de Quito | 64c | 1,000$640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360 | 149 | 45%67 W · 82 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a4…d8b4backed CA Lanús | 1c | 820.39$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1950…1bf4backed LDU de Quito | 60c | 783.33$469 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.38 | 118 | 58.5%69 W · 49 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdebb…eedbbacked LDU de Quito | 60c | 424.8$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.92 | 130 | 49.2%64 W · 66 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e07…80d1backed LDU de Quito | 65c | 308.33$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.33 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x94a5…4eb8backed LDU de Quito | 68c | 305.51$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.76 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe062…4907backed LDU de Quito | 61c | 286$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.18 | 77 | 48.1%37 W · 40 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed CA Lanús | 32c | 284.61$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.19 | 80 | 26.3%21 W · 59 L | -4.7wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked CA Lanús | 35c | 271.66$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.48 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed LDU de Quito | 61c | 245.67$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.79 | 2,335 | 51.5%1,202 W · 1,133 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf504…132ebacked LDU de Quito | 60c | 226.41$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.41 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.18per pick | 46cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32e0…a295backed LDU de Quito | 64c | 156.46$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.46 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +40.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d0a…07c7backed LDU de Quito | 59c | 135.59$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.59 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.21per pick | 59cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5f…1171backed LDU de Quito | 59c | 134.47$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.47 | 333 | 65.5%218 W · 115 L | +10.7wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d05…f729backed LDU de Quito | 62c | 130.06$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.42 | 145 | 35.9%52 W · 93 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x099f…c1e1backed CA Lanús | 30c | 114.33$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.76 | 156 | 51.9%81 W · 75 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3565…0b17backed LDU de Quito | 64c | 109.38$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.38 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +3.4wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +39.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6196…1a64backed LDU de Quito | 60c | 108.33$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.33 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04b7…7491backed CA Lanús | 40c | 84$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed CA Lanús | 32c | 82.22$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.31 | 452 | 53.1%240 W · 212 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed LDU de Quito | 64c | 68.27$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.3 | 700 | 55.7%390 W · 310 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f9…29a9backed LDU de Quito | 60c | 68$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.42 | 209 | 58.4%122 W · 87 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked CA Lanús | 32c | 62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 242 | 53.3%129 W · 113 L | +8.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa434…e508backed LDU de Quito | 61c | 57.65$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.65 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked LDU de Quito | 62c | 56.31$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.23 | 2,170 | 43.7%948 W · 1,222 L | -53.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed CA Lanús | 36c | 54.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 716 | 19.7%141 W · 575 L | -49.1wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x66e8…c0e2backed LDU de Quito | 64c | 48.44$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.44 | 31 | 67.7%21 W · 10 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 62cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6d1…e5a4backed CA Lanús | 35c | 44.18$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c39…442dbacked CA Lanús | 37c | 40.48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.11 | 130 | 23.1%30 W · 100 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3aa7…303dbacked LDU de Quito | 61c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 57 | 64.9%37 W · 20 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35d1…1f70backed LDU de Quito | 59c | 33.59$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.77 | 197 | 61.9%122 W · 75 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff66…39cfbacked LDU de Quito | 60c | 30.52$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.21 | 28 | 67.9%19 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e73…3f4ebacked LDU de Quito | 60c | 29.88$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.93 | 192 | 64.1%123 W · 69 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ebf…2da0backed LDU de Quito | 59c | 24$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.84 | 112 | 62.5%70 W · 42 L | +11.6wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +21%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3711…7339backed LDU de Quito | 59c | 20.07$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.23 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: CA Lanús (-1.5)this page
- CA Lanús vs. LDU de Quito: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- CA Lanús vs. LDU de Quito: O/U 1.5Under won
- CA Lanús vs. LDU de Quito: O/U 2.5Under won
- CA Lanús vs. LDU de Quito: O/U 3.5Under won
- CA Lanús vs. LDU de Quito: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: CA Lanús (-2.5)LDU de Quito won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.