La Liga · resolved market
Will Valencia win on 2025-08-16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x73457f11ff9a86dcbf4f41c7c61e2037c8c028c3f75023f5441a4fce48325325
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,292
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,858
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,292 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x64b5…7543backed No | 62c | 1,713$1,062 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$651.06 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x71cd…912dbacked No | 3c | 1,031$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000 | 51 | 43.1%22 W · 29 L | +15.1wins | +0.30per pick | 14cpaid | +663.6%equal weight | 72+0.20 edge/pick |
| 0x4e94…6243backed Yes | 38c | 893.43$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336.9 | 59 | 61%36 W · 23 L | +7.2wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…0b51backed No | 61c | 499.95$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.98 | 63 | 31.7%20 W · 43 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce6d…6130backed No | 62c | 408.93$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.57 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 29c | 400$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116 | 50 | 28%14 W · 36 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x900b…34bcbacked Yes | 37c | 299.89$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9d1…2b9ebacked Yes | 21c | 284.09$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +2.4wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8c81…dcd3backed Yes | 55c | 225.92$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.26 | 65 | 38.5%25 W · 40 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 72c | 224.06$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.16 | 3,449 | 43%1,484 W · 1,965 L | +32.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea64…f2a2backed No | 60c | 223.6$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.44 | 77 | 62.3%48 W · 29 L | +5.5wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e10…70f4backed No | 69c | 212.88$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.74 | 148 | 54.1%80 W · 68 L | +5.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Yes | 38c | 135$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.3 | 89 | 39.3%35 W · 54 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Yes | 38c | 131.58$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 58 | 31%18 W · 40 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ef…0b77backed No | 62c | 112.99$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.94 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0249…c622backed Yes | 39c | 102.56$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 350 | 54%189 W · 161 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked Yes | 38c | 95$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.1 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -3.6wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x799b…c97ebacked Yes | 39c | 71.64$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe89…e597backed Yes | 38c | 66.26$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe24e…350cbacked Yes | 31c | 65.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6554…702fbacked Yes | 38c | 64.84$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.64 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24c4…107cbacked Yes | 39c | 63.87$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bbb…eac9backed Yes | 40c | 63.05$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Yes | 55c | 55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2f1…45dfbacked Yes | 27c | 53.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5f8…1affbacked Yes | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bef…0526backed Yes | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…fd3ebacked Yes | 38c | 46.97$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2873…e190backed Yes | 40c | 44.1$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bb4…a184backed No | 63c | 43.98$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x488b…80b5backed No | 63c | 43.68$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9f2…aff3backed No | 63c | 43.46$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.08 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +98.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf67d…6e1dbacked No | 63c | 43.44$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.07 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe469…0363backed No | 63c | 42.68$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.79 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +68.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf850…886bbacked No | 63c | 42.62$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.77 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +135.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef63…ff0bbacked No | 63c | 41.68$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77be…252ebacked No | 63c | 40.62$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.03 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabfc…3404backed No | 63c | 40.59$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.02 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +64.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf761…f977backed No | 64c | 40.55$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe95d…d81bbacked Yes | 38c | 40.53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x919f…9dd0backed No | 63c | 40.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.81 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +79.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Yes | 38c | 39.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 69 | 40.6%28 W · 41 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -19%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26a9…b18cbacked Yes | 40c | 36.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x577d…e4ddbacked No | 63c | 21.83$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.08 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed No | 60c | 17.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 432 | 55.6%240 W · 192 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Valencia win on 2025-08-16?this page
- Will Real Sociedad win on 2025-08-16?No won
- Will Valencia vs. Real Sociedad end in a draw?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.