South American Leagues · resolved market
Will CF Cruz Azul vs. CD Guadalajara end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x736e6e691a17710fac034eef131b329d55db0715944b75aacb8f90661cee01f1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $68,192
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $60,998
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $68,192 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 26c | 14,495$3,720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,720.37 | 1,944 | 51.3%998 W · 946 L | +40.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 72c | 10,185$7,356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,828.37 | 1,487 | 48.7%724 W · 763 L | -17.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 74c | 6,388$4,749 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,639.1 | 1,985 | 44.8%890 W · 1,095 L | -44.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7298…fe8dbacked Yes | 28c | 5,286$1,480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,479.99 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 25c | 3,199$796 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$795.77 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 24c | 2,959$720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$719.83 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xada5…db70backed Yes | 27c | 2,848$780 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$780.07 | 127 | 36.2%46 W · 81 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 27c | 2,342$638 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$638.44 | 817 | 40.8%333 W · 484 L | +20.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Yes | 25c | 2,298$581 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$580.71 | 233 | 54.9%128 W · 105 L | +7.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 25c | 966.69$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.83 | 68 | 23.5%16 W · 52 L | -4.7wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 75c | 901.89$676 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.31 | 1,537 | 45.2%695 W · 842 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes | 30c | 814.54$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.37 | 1,366 | 52.4%716 W · 650 L | +51.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 26c | 807.23$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.22 | 816 | 51.6%421 W · 395 L | +12.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 25c | 662.29$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.09 | 3,749 | 38.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L | -33.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005c…a987backed Yes | 25c | 600$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 127 | 41.7%53 W · 74 L | -6.8wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed No | 79c | 583.97$459 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.41 | 849 | 43.8%372 W · 477 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbed…804ebacked Yes | 29c | 569$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.01 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 41c | 403.54$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.99 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb20…3b5cbacked Yes | 33c | 303.24$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 220 | 49.1%108 W · 112 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfae1…7bb6backed Yes | 25c | 294.85$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c40…7c34backed Yes | 24c | 260.29$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.47 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5eeb…01b2backed Yes | 23c | 257.82$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.44 | 495 | 35.4%175 W · 320 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked Yes | 10c | 198.37$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.76 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.14per pick | 24cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd265…a7ecbacked Yes | 13c | 152.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.79 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +3.5wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe4a3…bce8backed Yes | 28c | 152$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.56 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6e4…22ccbacked Yes | 28c | 150$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaea0…0decbacked No | 55c | 149$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.55 | 175 | 42.3%74 W · 101 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed No | 75c | 125.32$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.71 | 992 | 59.1%586 W · 406 L | +108.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Yes | 18c | 123.39$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.21 | 457 | 46.8%214 W · 243 L | +13.9wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf280…b65bbacked Yes | 27c | 113.88$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.69 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f63…4fe9backed Yes | 22c | 111.14$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.45 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed Yes | 24c | 108$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.06 | 270 | 50.7%137 W · 133 L | -11.7wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 76c | 106.67$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.24 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21c2…6749backed Yes | 23c | 106$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.15 | 174 | 36.2%63 W · 111 L | -9.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x344b…f7fcbacked Yes | 23c | 97$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.47 | 113 | 34.5%39 W · 74 L | -9.3wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1813…4dfebacked No | 74c | 82.25$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.38 | 270 | 53%143 W · 127 L | +8.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Yes | 24c | 81.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.65 | 716 | 19.7%141 W · 575 L | -49.1wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Yes | 27c | 79$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.63 | 1,253 | 56.2%704 W · 549 L | +73.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Yes | 29c | 77.89$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.49 | 1,444 | 56.4%815 W · 629 L | +51.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked No | 75c | 70$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.68 | 1,668 | 51.7%863 W · 805 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x489d…f6e3backed Yes | 28c | 69$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.21 | 267 | 49.4%132 W · 135 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed No | 73c | 65$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.3 | 274 | 42%115 W · 159 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff6b…c91abacked Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54e1…9de8backed Yes | 68c | 59.78$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.65 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb7…fb66backed Yes | 23c | 59$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd094…271bbacked Yes | 23c | 56.52$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 132 | 28%37 W · 95 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Yes | 25c | 55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.02 | 2,611 | 54.2%1,415 W · 1,196 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a97…c1f9backed No | 72c | 53.58$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbef8…3ae7backed Yes | 22c | 51.45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…688ebacked Yes | 40c | 48.91$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d08…2142backed No | 77c | 41.97$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.83 | 84 | 52.4%44 W · 40 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b85…bf37backed No | 74c | 36.76$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.56 | 235 | 42.1%99 W · 136 L | -13.1wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7178…4052backed Yes | 28c | 36.36$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked No | 74c | 30.25$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.76 | 1,328 | 57%757 W · 571 L | +57.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9686…4303backed Yes | 66c | 30.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 59cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked No | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 96 | 57.3%55 W · 41 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd0f…48fdbacked No | 74c | 26$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.86 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea72…d821backed No | 72c | 21.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.99 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 73cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed21…aa05backed No | 74c | 19.04$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5425…8b3abacked Yes | 67c | 16.42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75e3…4bd5backed No | 72c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 38 | 76.3%29 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 71cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41ad…8dddbacked No | 76c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.36 | 80 | 35%28 W · 52 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…8ff4backed No | 78c | 13.91$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.08 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 68cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe856…4711backed No | 79c | 12.71$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.67 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +3.8wins | +0.27per pick | 52cpaid | +91.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will CF Cruz Azul vs. CD Guadalajara end in a draw?this page
- Will CD Guadalajara win on 2026-02-21?No won
- Will CF Cruz Azul win on 2026-02-21?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.