Music · resolved market
Will Opalite by Taylor Swift be the Billboard #1 song for the week of February 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x737e2ad6ce224a8df4899418e57869b87bca26693b78d4b19546232d2fe8eb8f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,867
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,140
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,867 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc55f…31debacked No | 5c | 2,077$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed No | 5c | 1,149$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.29 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 20cpaid | -77.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5960…d692backed No | 7c | 499.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef37…f2bcbacked Yes | 60c | 353$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf06d…db77backed No | 40c | 353$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.2 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +73.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 5c | 300$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 67 | 3%2 W · 65 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d88…1a05backed No | 24c | 266.26$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 7c | 255$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.75 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 5c | 243$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.47 | 226 | 40.3%91 W · 135 L | -10.9wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x520b…100abacked No | 11c | 159$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.08 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdea5…c77bbacked Yes | 62c | 89.42$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.05 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5906…c04cbacked No | 41c | 41.83$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 26cpaid | -76.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62fa…bfa3backed Yes | 64c | 32.77$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.88 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4507…3921backed Yes | 55c | 24.44$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.27per pick | 53cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Opalite by Taylor Swift be the Billboard #1 song for the week of February 28?this page
- Will Choosin’ Texas by Ella Langley be the Billboard #1 song for the week of February 28?No won
- Will DtMF by Bad Bunny be the Billboard #1 song for the week of February 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.