Token Launches · resolved market
Will Phantom daily builder revenue hit $200k in 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x737f752f9aab671eb5b8222deadcb8826d57dbe5a50ea4c0960fd1fdcaed3487
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,253
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,094
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,253 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe5d9…72eebacked Yes | 78c | 2,190$1,700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$489.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa84…e985backed No | 23c | 1,500$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8af…04e7backed Yes | 61c | 879.4$539 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340.65 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.16per pick | 61cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x65d7…63ebbacked Yes | 71c | 415.05$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 12c | 320$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.95 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -2.5wins | -0.18per pick | 25cpaid | -77.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f6…f699backed No | 18c | 307$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.03 | 238 | 41.2%98 W · 140 L | +25.1wins | +0.11per pick | 31cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x74cb…ae6dbacked No | 10c | 282.67$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93fd…6a72backed Yes | 47c | 200$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19b1…7dc3backed No | 22c | 200$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9998…e858backed No | 7c | 165.05$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e0…79b8backed No | 22c | 154$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 24c | 133.34$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.69 | 134 | 24.6%33 W · 101 L | -14.8wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 25c | 102.89$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.43 | 64 | 20.3%13 W · 51 L | -4.7wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 167 | 40.7%68 W · 99 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…b3d2backed Yes | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 77c | 85.61$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.61 | 212 | 40.6%86 W · 126 L | -9.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x355e…a038backed Yes | 74c | 81.48$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.81 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4083…363fbacked Yes | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 79c | 49$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.44 | 76 | 21.1%16 W · 60 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed Yes | 80c | 43$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b5a…41cbbacked Yes | 74c | 39.29$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a14…12ddbacked Yes | 76c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.