Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7382b161f0366b813dc14a2fcaef02ba925745cf649072aac24c2db1ca73a6ff
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,813
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,532
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,813 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5ecf…af11backed Yes | 20c | 328.71$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.74 | 381 | 38.6%147 W · 234 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 10c | 178.58$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcff…8528backed No | 65c | 169.65$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.11 | 61 | 59%36 W · 25 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 68c | 167.44$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.93 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 12c | 159$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8817…cda8backed Yes | 42c | 152$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.58 | 248 | 41.1%102 W · 146 L | -13.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 66c | 140.66$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.65 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 27c | 140.52$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.62 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d65…2d2bbacked Yes | 14c | 138.55$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.02 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 29c | 126.95$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.28 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xc9cb…015fbacked Yes | 35c | 118.92$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.67 | 200 | 27.5%55 W · 145 L | +10.7wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 63c | 114.05$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.2 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 71c | 113$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.97 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 61c | 112.46$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.08 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc62d…5577backed Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.12 | 250 | 38%95 W · 155 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 32c | 99.57$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.15 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1aa…7429backed Yes | 26c | 80$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 94 | 26.6%25 W · 69 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40b0…f139backed Yes | 43c | 80$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.15 | 297 | 40.7%121 W · 176 L | +11.4wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41f6…828ebacked Yes | 18c | 74.4$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.31 | 451 | 30.8%139 W · 312 L | +33.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 79c | 70.63$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.52 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d8…8f53backed Yes | 18c | 66.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 51 | 72.5%37 W · 14 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50d8…0a0ebacked No | 65c | 66.28$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.39 | 399 | 68.9%275 W · 124 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 62c | 59$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.42 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 64c | 55$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f12…9424backed Yes | 57c | 54.83$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.26 | 175 | 53.7%94 W · 81 L | +9.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 23c | 52.65$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.37 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb04…8b26backed Yes | 29c | 51.84$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +128.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 43c | 46.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 37c | 41.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.43 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.23 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 58c | 36.84$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.47 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 34c | 32.45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58e6…9ac7backed No | 63c | 31.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.74 | 197 | 53.8%106 W · 91 L | -12.7wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 64c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 61c | 29.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 61c | 27.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c7a…7be5backed No | 51c | 27.8$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.62 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd670…1e02backed No | 76c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.23 | 222 | 65.8%146 W · 76 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 64c | 23.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.43 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7211…6734backed No | 74c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.46 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x429f…05e4backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbe7d…fd73backed No | 64c | 18.19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.55 | 66 | 48.5%32 W · 34 L | -7.0wins | -0.11per pick | 59cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8bfc…8d4fbacked No | 77c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.76 | 95 | 73.7%70 W · 25 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5157…fdbcbacked No | 65c | 15.71$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 533 | 53.1%283 W · 250 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cd6…092abacked No | 70c | 14.29$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.29 | 247 | 36%89 W · 158 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 12?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on June 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 98-99°F on June 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.