Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 57-58°F on March 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x739521d86be3f27f3ad09e0657b1bba35832661b70796a5527ae1b78e27827db
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,447
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,328
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,447 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5f39…a78cbacked Yes | 3c | 419.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.49 | 213 | 50.2%107 W · 106 L | +19.0wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1be0…e690backed Yes | 26c | 415$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.9 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19b8…612abacked Yes | 47c | 414.1$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.73 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -2.9wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7399…8224backed Yes | 28c | 405$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 33c | 397.31$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.3 | 250 | 6%15 W · 235 L | -12.4wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -67%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4fba…9c14backed Yes | 28c | 320$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb182…005fbacked Yes | 32c | 266.81$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.86 | 600 | 33.8%203 W · 397 L | -7.5wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a1b…d08abacked Yes | 68c | 258.26$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.38 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +103%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8aa…58e5backed Yes | 28c | 250$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc6…30cfbacked Yes | 28c | 245$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d61…3c32backed Yes | 20c | 197.25$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 132 | 24.2%32 W · 100 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa291…d88dbacked Yes | 35c | 190$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.3 | 191 | 26.2%50 W · 141 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9241…f41cbacked Yes | 65c | 153.03$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 96 | 47.9%46 W · 50 L | -14.8wins | -0.15per pick | 63cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 27c | 150$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed No | 44c | 141.28$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.6 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a6…a888backed Yes | 26c | 120$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf241…a9a8backed No | 77c | 105.68$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.75 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9469…6d18backed Yes | 19c | 103.47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 959 | 42.4%407 W · 552 L | +84.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xec99…962fbacked No | 80c | 99.99$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +49.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02e4…7793backed No | 72c | 95$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd09…6f2cbacked No | 72c | 95$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa034…32c3backed No | 72c | 95$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a83…e78ebacked No | 72c | 95$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04a6…a1cebacked No | 72c | 95$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42d5…dc75backed No | 72c | 95$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x772e…b754backed No | 72c | 95$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeef9…c97bbacked No | 72c | 95$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00d9…036fbacked No | 72c | 95$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 60cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaac7…9ab1backed No | 72c | 95$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…fc02backed No | 77c | 91.76$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.01 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | -7.3wins | -0.16per pick | 61cpaid | -36%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x81d0…2731backed No | 74c | 90$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +86%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 26c | 90$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa712…c667backed Yes | 28c | 90$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef2a…3df2backed No | 73c | 90$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x588c…e4eebacked No | 74c | 90$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93ad…7a9bbacked No | 74c | 90$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 48cpaid | +353.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f62…319dbacked No | 74c | 90$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54a2…ce6ebacked No | 74c | 90$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.47 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1888…fb0ebacked No | 72c | 90$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa75…3caabacked Yes | 26c | 85$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbafc…7939backed No | 72c | 85$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.8 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x652b…19c4backed Yes | 54c | 82.3$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.85 | 50 | 20%10 W · 40 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fb7…6dccbacked Yes | 26c | 80$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x700b…db88backed Yes | 26c | 80$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f39…7043backed Yes | 26c | 65$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 25c | 65$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.55 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8e22…3061backed Yes | 27c | 63$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.22 | 385 | 15.6%60 W · 325 L | +15.3wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +93.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb64f…3237backed Yes | 70c | 56$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e25…09fbbacked Yes | 27c | 55.07$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.02 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ce…b5c2backed No | 72c | 55$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25fd…a641backed No | 74c | 55$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb687…26a4backed No | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8196…0954backed Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 111 | 26.1%29 W · 82 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x54b2…cb39backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd530…9a0cbacked No | 74c | 45$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9118…e9dabacked No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x674a…7889backed No | 73c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3808…e75bbacked Yes | 34c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6072…fb46backed No | 61c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x000b…e5dbbacked No | 72c | 35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7beb…7f6bbacked No | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54c4…471cbacked No | 72c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec2c…959abacked No | 72c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36a3…9151backed No | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 40cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8775…c4aebacked No | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcbc…1054backed No | 72c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.1wins | +0.54per pick | 47cpaid | +132.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x92f6…3064backed No | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x663e…5916backed No | 74c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +94.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7364…7f38backed No | 72c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7e6…2cc5backed No | 77c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 205 | 56.1%115 W · 90 L | +25.5wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffd…b3f8backed No | 72c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 64cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09ad…1a2dbacked No | 74c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeff0…664cbacked No | 72c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +52.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8402…bb90backed No | 74c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.36per pick | 65cpaid | +64.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a26…9d3cbacked No | 72c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b31…8cbcbacked No | 73c | 20.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.55 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3084…2638backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +235.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd9…bccebacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x783d…362bbacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 57-58°F on March 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be 63°F or higher on March 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 53-54°F on March 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 55-56°F on March 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 59-60°F on March 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 61-62°F on March 18?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.