La Liga · resolved market
Villarreal vs. Mallorca: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x73c1acbf45574f1f79efbed88179846102619add999da17e9cd37d45e51b4bc1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $47,309
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $48,308
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $47,309 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa6ee…697bbacked Over | 59c | 24,308$14,342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,966.45 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | -4.6wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Under | 41c | 17,207$7,137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,136.75 | 89 | 57.3%51 W · 38 L | +7.2wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 41c | 9,443$3,844 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,844.08 | 4,753 | 47.1%2,238 W · 2,515 L | -21.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb58b…6c37backed Over | 60c | 2,475$1,485 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$989.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Under | 43c | 2,343$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 130 | 54.6%71 W · 59 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 57c | 1,600$912 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$687.94 | 1,798 | 51.4%924 W · 874 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Under | 41c | 1,248$512 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$511.84 | 232 | 50.4%117 W · 115 L | +11.2wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46c8…6239backed Over | 58c | 967.4$561 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$406.31 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Over | 60c | 833.33$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.33 | 95 | 64.2%61 W · 34 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 26c | 636.84$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.71 | 146 | 45.2%66 W · 80 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15ba…f30dbacked Under | 43c | 465.12$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3b…5a53backed Over | 58c | 344.83$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.83 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9140…4d82backed Over | 58c | 334.48$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.48 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +50.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…c043backed Over | 60c | 200$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 56 | 46.4%26 W · 30 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc2d1…84a2backed Under | 40c | 200$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 77 | 45.5%35 W · 42 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 42c | 117$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.56 | 532 | 46.1%245 W · 287 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a5c…b3f2backed Under | 41c | 109.1$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.15 | 150 | 51.3%77 W · 73 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7740…7e67backed Under | 42c | 107.5$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.15 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a8d…31eabacked Over | 59c | 102.03$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.83 | 494 | 47%232 W · 262 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15e3…009fbacked Over | 57c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | -6.0wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x553b…f71cbacked Over | 56c | 71.66$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.53 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -3.4wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab9…1437backed Over | 58c | 68.97$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.97 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 46c | 52.26$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.94 | 1,018 | 53.1%541 W · 477 L | -24.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa03…eea2backed Over | 58c | 35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 102 | 48%49 W · 53 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9b…829ebacked Over | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 193 | 45.1%87 W · 106 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Under | 37c | 31.75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 96 | 29.2%28 W · 68 L | -5.0wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x312d…6814backed Over | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Over | 56c | 29.7$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.07 | 559 | 41.1%230 W · 329 L | -11.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a59…ba82backed Over | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -2.7wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4b9e…4580backed Over | 71c | 23.24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6723…a540backed Over | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Villarreal vs. Mallorca: O/U 2.5this page
- Spread: Villarreal (-1.5)Mallorca won
- Villarreal vs. Mallorca: O/U 1.5Over won
- Villarreal vs. Mallorca: O/U 3.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.