Dota2 · resolved market
Game Handicap: Tundra (-1.5) vs OG (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x73c2e15e05014db7db552da6130d90239f85fdad8f970be85b63e9eb83cb4c06
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- OGof Tundra Esports, OG
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,545
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,545 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf679…16acbacked OG | 62c | 586.04$361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.1 | 229 | 54.1%124 W · 105 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Tundra Esports | 35c | 484.1$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.32 | 98 | 37.8%37 W · 61 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Tundra Esports | 31c | 423$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.23 | 605 | 42.6%258 W · 347 L | -14.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf38c…d9f2backed Tundra Esports | 47c | 334.04$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157 | 463 | 54.6%253 W · 210 L | -8.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47c6…2fe4backed OG | 62c | 321.55$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.32 | 148 | 49.3%73 W · 75 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb442…ca19backed OG | 76c | 263$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bd4…a3b2backed OG | 76c | 259$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92f8…0e1fbacked OG | 65c | 250$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.48 | 94 | 40.4%38 W · 56 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -20%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a6…f113backed OG | 76c | 226$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd055…28d0backed OG | 66c | 196.65$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.68 | 265 | 50.6%134 W · 131 L | +12.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b2d…dd8abacked OG | 76c | 193$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0a…526ebacked Tundra Esports | 32c | 192$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe766…404dbacked Tundra Esports | 36c | 183.5$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.06 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b2f…35bbbacked OG | 76c | 178$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fc2…64d1backed OG | 64c | 138.03$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.03 | 110 | 43.6%48 W · 62 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19cf…c635backed OG | 76c | 138$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a5…7f61backed Tundra Esports | 24c | 128$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c82…ddefbacked Tundra Esports | 24c | 124$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd49d…f05cbacked OG | 65c | 122$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.7 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +3.3wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9e…9291backed Tundra Esports | 24c | 116$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c36…273ebacked Tundra Esports | 24c | 112$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11ab…7735backed Tundra Esports | 24c | 103$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9eb4…672fbacked Tundra Esports | 24c | 88$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd48c…f3b2backed Tundra Esports | 24c | 87$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba05…f8c0backed Tundra Esports | 24c | 84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 491 | 33.6%165 W · 326 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3bf1…e155backed Tundra Esports | 24c | 83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef21…9d7bbacked Tundra Esports | 25c | 78$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23f5…81fdbacked Tundra Esports | 24c | 75$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7969…6432backed Tundra Esports | 24c | 71$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c0…23d8backed Tundra Esports | 37c | 69.44$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 239 | 57.3%137 W · 102 L | +8.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5de7…5417backed Tundra Esports | 44c | 50.46$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 479 | 51.8%248 W · 231 L | +17.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x68c9…aec3backed Tundra Esports | 40c | 48.33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.33 | 147 | 44.2%65 W · 82 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed OG | 55c | 45.92$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.63 | 1,164 | 47.2%549 W · 615 L | -29.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Tundra Esports | 36c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 154 | 50%77 W · 77 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c67…e838backed OG | 73c | 39.56$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.69 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4f…46c2backed OG | 62c | 31.16$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.84 | 360 | 54.4%196 W · 164 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d16…0abbbacked Tundra Esports | 37c | 27.05$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -3.1wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed OG | 61c | 22.41$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.72 | 38 | 71.1%27 W · 11 L | +8.3wins | +0.22per pick | 49cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Game Handicap: Tundra (-1.5) vs OG (+1.5)this page
- Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs OG (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group StageTundra Esports won
- Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs OG - Game 1 WinnerOG won
- Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs OG - Game 2 WinnerTundra Esports won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.