TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs OG - Game 1 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
OGof Tundra Esports, OG
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$197,052

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $197,052 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 193 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x66fb…9f72backed OG37c22,910$8,585 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,32554556.5%308 W · 237 L+10.4wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8310…8967backed Tundra Esports52c13,642$7,131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,131.179657.3%55 W · 41 L+8.5wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+13.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xdc40…89cfbacked Tundra Esports59c8,278$4,920 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,920.4736041.4%149 W · 211 L-22.2wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-12.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x7a46…ab25backed OG36c6,800$2,462 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,337.8912156.2%68 W · 53 L+7.6wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+2.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6ab4…96a5backed OG43c5,216$2,240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,975.7511854.2%64 W · 54 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x87da…53d1backed Tundra Esports67c5,073$3,381 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,380.9796557.4%554 W · 411 L+49.5wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+7.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Tundra Esports48c4,612$2,213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,212.521,52137.9%576 W · 945 L-57.8wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-26.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Tundra Esports57c3,688$2,106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,105.7860542.6%258 W · 347 L-14.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-7.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe3aa…1485backed OG58c2,932$1,690 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,241.686852.9%36 W · 32 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+4.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfbf3…b218backed Tundra Esports62c2,671$1,656 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,656.316147.2%76 W · 85 L+4.4wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x70c1…dba0backed OG42c2,500$1,050 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,45022643.8%99 W · 127 L-6.3wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe999…12bdbacked OG43c2,089$900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,189.118156.4%102 W · 79 L+8.9wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+8.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc49b…a5b8backed OG47c2,055$970 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,085.248655.8%48 W · 38 L-0.4wins0.00per pick56cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe550…2c8bbacked Tundra Esports58c2,000$1,160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1604654.3%25 W · 21 L+2.5wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+12.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb4a9…3d6fbacked Tundra Esports46c1,973$915 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$914.929145.1%41 W · 50 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-14.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa0f9…cf34backed OG66c1,646$1,091 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$555.3118661.8%115 W · 71 L-6.9wins-0.04per pick66cpaid-10.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xad72…4f5ebacked OG50c1,471$737 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$733.6936851.6%190 W · 178 L+25.7wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+16.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xcd43…88d7backed OG23c1,247$285 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$961.710334%35 W · 68 L-5.0wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-14.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xca1f…ed28backed OG31c1,230$385 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$845.860552.6%318 W · 287 L+15.0wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x78a2…d0a5backed Tundra Esports72c1,225$882 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$881.978845.5%40 W · 48 L-6.7wins-0.08per pick53cpaid-10.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd06c…cdafbacked OG43c1,057$454 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$603.421,18643.2%512 W · 674 L+42.2wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+1.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x823b…59e9backed OG57c1,046$597 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$448.826349.2%31 W · 32 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-23.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8a38…fee0backed Tundra Esports61c1,000$614 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$613.5460349.9%301 W · 302 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x1bcb…b05abacked Tundra Esports32c981.74$312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$312.3738049.2%187 W · 193 L+13.1wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+168.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1ae1…c891backed OG15c975.04$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$833.0433549.9%167 W · 168 L+6.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2416…6e91backed Tundra Esports62c971.71$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60038653.9%208 W · 178 L+10.1wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+1.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0b99…8bddbacked OG36c850$304 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$546.1277458.5%453 W · 321 L+75.1wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+12.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x47c6…2fe4backed OG47c822.24$383 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$439.4714849.3%73 W · 75 L-4.3wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x16ce…eba1backed Tundra Esports8c766.82$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.026132.1%13 W · 600 L-23.4wins-0.04per pick6cpaid-76.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa474…32cbbacked Tundra Esports67c722.81$486 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$485.8153844.4%239 W · 299 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xae4c…dcb9backed Tundra Esports37c709.63$262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$262.4728549.1%140 W · 145 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc5a…bf71backed Tundra Esports65c701.08$457 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$457.3546649.8%232 W · 234 L+8.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-12.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbd8c…dfbebacked Tundra Esports58c691.63$399 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$399.234355.8%24 W · 19 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2c1a…42d8backed OG45c688.09$307 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$381.19837.8%37 W · 61 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick39cpaid+0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0ac5…f963backed OG51c647.06$331 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$316.4312252.5%64 W · 58 L+5.8wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+0.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xefc0…395ebacked Tundra Esports78c640.06$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500.13633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.22per pick55cpaid-27.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6b7d…fbafbacked Tundra Esports59c628.3$370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3701540%6 W · 9 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6135…efa0backed OG19c600$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4862842.9%12 W · 16 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+10.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1f2d…2b35backed OG40c599.99$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$360.0953652.6%282 W · 254 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe6a4…4249backed OG50c579.06$290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$288.9119664.8%127 W · 69 L+0.3wins0.00per pick65cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd4f9…f619backed Tundra Esports43c536.75$233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$232.9314751.7%76 W · 71 L+11.1wins+0.08per pick44cpaid-1.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0c67…d062backed OG53c528.21$279 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$249.211,13742.3%481 W · 656 L-27.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-9.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0d03…9a41backed Tundra Esports63c500$316 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$315.8723050.9%117 W · 113 L-0.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid-10.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x61e9…cb1bbacked OG42c499.99$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2902450%12 W · 12 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x363a…4a8dbacked OG48c488$234 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$253.768258.5%48 W · 34 L-3.8wins-0.05per pick63cpaid-11%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Tundra Esports63c487.11$307 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$307.281,27245%572 W · 700 L-40.5wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-17.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x227f…405dbacked OG39c485$189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$295.851442.9%6 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-15.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf8c0…c3b9backed Tundra Esports61c485$296 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$295.851338.5%5 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick47cpaid-12.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb110…21eabacked Tundra Esports63c478.67$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3007550.7%38 W · 37 L-7.2wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-18.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xcf0a…320abacked OG51c469.11$241 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$227.9692056.4%519 W · 401 L+78.3wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+3.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x38ba…6eccbacked Tundra Esports31c450.41$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.9633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-47.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa50b…74b2backed OG44c449.93$196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$253.541631.3%5 W · 11 L-1.9wins-0.12per pick43cpaid-46.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb3c6…54cbbacked OG23c436.59$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$336.055246.2%24 W · 28 L+6.7wins+0.13per pick33cpaid+38.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x736d…c635backed Tundra Esports55c399.99$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22097142.7%415 W · 556 L-20.4wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-9.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x05e3…f092backed OG18c391.2$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$321.34136.6%15 W · 26 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Tundra Esports45c389.76$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.151,16447.2%549 W · 615 L-29.1wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8d85…c436backed OG23c369$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$282.8350832.9%167 W · 341 L-14.8wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-26.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x24eb…75eebacked Tundra Esports58c367.65$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.245251.9%27 W · 25 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+8.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7032…0a8bbacked Tundra Esports56c366.67$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.7855251.6%285 W · 267 L+10.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x86b1…c094backed OG20c340$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27265625.6%168 W · 488 L+14.7wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0702…e5eabacked OG41c319$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$188.9840745.5%185 W · 222 L-1.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x86f8…1655backed Tundra Esports47c300$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1413060%18 W · 12 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+6.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5502…d440backed Tundra Esports51c300$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15345457.5%261 W · 193 L+39.5wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+14%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc49b…70c0backed Tundra Esports39c290$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.563032.5%205 W · 425 L+1.4wins0.00per pick32cpaid-22.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5cab…a8cfbacked Tundra Esports71c289.75$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.3935370%247 W · 106 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick69cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa97f…a818backed OG42c286.21$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16658744%258 W · 329 L+13.3wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked OG37c280.61$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.62,01244.2%889 W · 1,123 L+36.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x52b7…0aa1backed OG43c272.67$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.4281029.4%238 W · 572 L-23.5wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-10.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x01d4…33d8backed Tundra Esports59c269.36$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16011757.3%67 W · 50 L+4.0wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc0d4…0289backed OG75c267.98$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.985453.7%29 W · 25 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+3.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x51ad…5e56backed Tundra Esports57c261.23$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15010456.7%59 W · 45 L+6.7wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+3.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfadf…dda0backed OG39c257.31$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.3129245.9%134 W · 158 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-1.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc4b2…4ab2backed Tundra Esports39c240$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.628244%124 W · 158 L-5.1wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf3ce…a57abacked OG44c239.09$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.091,20259.3%713 W · 489 L+64.6wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+10.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed OG44c237.35$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.792,82843.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L-39.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfbc2…514cbacked OG43c230$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13033845.6%154 W · 184 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-5.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3abf…b143backed OG59c227.16$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.5433645.5%153 W · 183 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x26ac…a735backed OG45c224.49$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.494841.7%20 W · 28 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1b9a…a06bbacked OG13c220.04$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$191.4437811.1%42 W · 336 L+0.8wins0.00per pick11cpaid-21.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc28f…9185backed OG39c220$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.2966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.14per pick52cpaid+28%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7c0a…b543backed Tundra Esports61c220$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.21258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+14.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked OG60c219.94$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.051,90147.6%905 W · 996 L+4.6wins0.00per pick47cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9376…c075backed Tundra Esports58c218.51$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.746155.7%34 W · 27 L+0.1wins0.00per pick56cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf138…c953backed Tundra Esports38c208.8$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.3410134.7%35 W · 66 L-11.2wins-0.11per pick46cpaid-35%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xc75a…1ab2backed OG9c205.85$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$187.4240014.8%59 W · 341 L+11.2wins+0.03per pick12cpaid-1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x86e0…c394backed Tundra Esports58c204.87$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.6580742.6%344 W · 463 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x31b5…6128backed Tundra Esports75c201.09$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.3718075%135 W · 45 L+18.8wins+0.10per pick65cpaid+16.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xe9b5…f95bbacked Tundra Esports57c200$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1144542.2%19 W · 26 L-2.4wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-23.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc4db…7e0cbacked Tundra Esports57c200$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11456243.2%243 W · 319 L+14.0wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0438…9d98backed OG59c199.24$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.5820156.7%114 W · 87 L+0.9wins0.00per pick56cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0030…04e9backed Tundra Esports31c193.24$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6034152.2%178 W · 163 L+7.4wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed Tundra Esports57c187$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.592352.2%12 W · 11 L+2.2wins+0.10per pick43cpaid+24.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6998…ae95backed Tundra Esports51c186.73$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.2316821.4%36 W · 132 L+0.4wins0.00per pick21cpaid-20.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe8af…44dcbacked Tundra Esports58c180$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.91464.3%9 W · 5 L+1.5wins+0.11per pick54cpaid+14.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc26c…ffddbacked Tundra Esports54c176.82$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.93327.3%9 W · 24 L-4.8wins-0.14per pick42cpaid-43%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xc42f…9390backed OG67c176.52$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.529254.3%50 W · 42 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a06…31d8backed OG76c175.35$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.7641655.3%230 W · 186 L-6.5wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-6.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x10ad…827cbacked Tundra Esports30c169.99$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.831143.4%135 W · 176 L+7.8wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-1.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6e4d…1cb0backed OG36c165.05$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.1957654.5%314 W · 262 L+29.2wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+2.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xba68…39d7backed Tundra Esports30c163.23$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.42450%12 W · 12 L-0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-19.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.