MLB · resolved market
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x73eec1a71df548fa1035a72356a071ceec0fd4d1f0b5dc2d6445c06dcc1bc5e4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,135
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,475
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,135 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdb85…152fbacked Under | 47c | 10,638$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 165 | 48.5%80 W · 85 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e05…7720backed Under | 46c | 10,000$4,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,599.98 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Over | 54c | 8,447$4,543 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,904.25 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 53c | 6,648$3,524 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,124.74 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 53c | 5,439$2,883 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,556.57 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…8fe8backed Under | 47c | 4,187$1,968 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,968.12 | 335 | 54%181 W · 154 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf800…f62dbacked Over | 54c | 3,104$1,676 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,427.84 | 63 | 57.1%36 W · 27 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…ee8bbacked Under | 47c | 2,000$940 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$939.99 | 752 | 48.8%367 W · 385 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4379…2e16backed Over | 53c | 1,944$1,030 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$913.78 | 779 | 51.1%398 W · 381 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb45a…192cbacked Under | 46c | 1,388$638 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$638.44 | 411 | 49.1%202 W · 209 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1736…ffcabacked Over | 54c | 925.93$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425.93 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09af…9728backed Over | 54c | 423.09$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.62 | 891 | 53.5%477 W · 414 L | +24.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa877…2e20backed Over | 54c | 327$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.42 | 726 | 48.1%349 W · 377 L | -17.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 53c | 303.19$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.5 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b1…e904backed Over | 53c | 294.35$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.34 | 693 | 51.9%360 W · 333 L | +26.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf15b…000fbacked Over | 54c | 277.78$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.78 | 122 | 53.3%65 W · 57 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Under | 47c | 201.28$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.6 | 403 | 41.4%167 W · 236 L | -20.0wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Over | 54c | 168$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.28 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb42…6e09backed Over | 54c | 162.96$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.96 | 151 | 47%71 W · 80 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba62…3e29backed Over | 53c | 113.21$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.21 | 221 | 49.3%109 W · 112 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb6…25eabacked Under | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 129 | 44.2%57 W · 72 L | -6.3wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 47c | 89.23$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.38 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9aca…61fdbacked Under | 47c | 80.32$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.45 | 274 | 54.4%149 W · 125 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb2e…7821backed Over | 53c | 80$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.6 | 738 | 49.3%364 W · 374 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 47c | 60$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.9 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcd…724dbacked Under | 46c | 60$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 102 | 49%50 W · 52 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07b1…b027backed Over | 52c | 59.23$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.43 | 209 | 44%92 W · 117 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70e9…a9d5backed Over | 53c | 56.6$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5407…5bbdbacked Over | 52c | 40.77$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.57 | 778 | 36%280 W · 498 L | -17.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8482…3f7abacked Over | 53c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.8 | 1,062 | 49.2%523 W · 539 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 55c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under | 46c | 26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 53c | 20.3$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.54 | 1,001 | 57.3%574 W · 427 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfae5…f940backed Over | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 816 | 51.8%423 W · 393 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 8.5this page
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta BravesMilwaukee Brewers won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 10.5Over won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 11.5Over won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 12.5Over won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 6.5Over won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 7.5Over won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-2.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-3.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-2.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-3.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.