Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on June 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x74019033a7652222179f399dd7f49dc083c8d9c9dfa6eb8843d47b1f5db45866
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,630
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,600
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,630 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5ddb…3fa9backed Yes | 9c | 414.75$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$377.58 | 313 | 19.2%60 W · 253 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 33c | 328.7$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.38 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbea5…1de3backed No | 76c | 198.99$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.44 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | -4.6wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0f…81aabacked Yes | 71c | 187.79$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.36 | 270 | 79.3%214 W · 56 L | +52.5wins | +0.19per pick | 60cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 35c | 154$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.87 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 28c | 135$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.1 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 27c | 131.77$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.65 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 32c | 112.67$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.68 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 49c | 106.08$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 68c | 100.18$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.25 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6d0…d21ebacked Yes | 35c | 90.92$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.47 | 183 | 37.7%69 W · 114 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 64c | 88.48$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.93 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad6…29f2backed Yes | 37c | 81.53$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.12 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc62d…5577backed Yes | 30c | 70$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 250 | 38%95 W · 155 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 59c | 67.55$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.54 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 67c | 64.53$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.17 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 71c | 63.52$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 34c | 60$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.36 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 30c | 59.36$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.67 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 62c | 58.54$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.23 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 66c | 58.04$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.58 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed No | 65c | 56$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.4 | 481 | 49.5%238 W · 243 L | -26.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed Yes | 23c | 55$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.35 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x865d…47aabacked Yes | 30c | 51.62$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.03 | 164 | 32.9%54 W · 110 L | +12.7wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xff06…c7d5backed No | 65c | 51.15$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.25 | 112 | 58.9%66 W · 46 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 32c | 51$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.68 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc7…6c9abacked Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.5 | 76 | 47.4%36 W · 40 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 65c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2109…58b3backed No | 36c | 48.78$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.36 | 53 | 37.7%20 W · 33 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 32c | 46.26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.46 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd499…0bffbacked Yes | 29c | 44.83$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.71per pick | 29cpaid | +247.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 31c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.62 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 45c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.16 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd1b…da1ebacked No | 71c | 38.03$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.96 | 259 | 46.3%120 W · 139 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 60c | 36.39$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.75 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd220…a8bdbacked Yes | 39c | 34.6$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.97 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x035b…c6ddbacked No | 76c | 32.78$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 250 | 49.2%123 W · 127 L | -10.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 32c | 32.7$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.17 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 47c | 30.56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 66c | 30.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 70c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.08 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 68c | 29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.66 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe801…764fbacked No | 65c | 28.77$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 58 | 72.4%42 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 75cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 59c | 28.15$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.56 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 71c | 25.73$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.23 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 77c | 25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.15 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 68c | 24$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 71c | 24$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.14 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57c5…76c2backed No | 68c | 23.52$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 68 | 52.9%36 W · 32 L | -7.5wins | -0.11per pick | 64cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 67c | 23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.42 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 60c | 23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.11 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x56e7…a35dbacked Yes | 59c | 22.13$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.14 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2930…3666backed No | 71c | 22$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.62 | 51 | 62.7%32 W · 19 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3c…ddd0backed No | 68c | 21.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.02 | 466 | 67.6%315 W · 151 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +334.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 72c | 21.48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.43 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb423…c178backed No | 70c | 21.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 268 | 61.6%165 W · 103 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 53c | 21.35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.41 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a96…cf5cbacked No | 74c | 19.87$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.64 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 66c | 19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.56 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41fa…7cc4backed No | 70c | 18.7$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.06 | 792 | 55.2%437 W · 355 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 72c | 18.13$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x179e…2fe3backed No | 72c | 18.08$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 108 | 57.4%62 W · 46 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b95…898abacked No | 65c | 17.64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 301 | 68.8%207 W · 94 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 76c | 15.53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.87 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 69c | 14.93$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on June 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 57°F or below on June 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 76°F or higher on June 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 60-61°F on June 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on June 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 64-65°F on June 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on June 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on June 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on June 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.