TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on June 4?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$11,080
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$11,816

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,080 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 86 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x035b…c6ddbacked Yes3c781.55$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.8725049.2%123 W · 127 L-10.2wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-14.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5ecf…af11backed Yes46c500.02$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231.9238138.6%147 W · 234 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-7.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf1e1…c152backed No27c487.32$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$353.6720231.2%63 W · 139 L+22.2wins+0.11per pick20cpaid+13.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x82f3…9f82backed No36c437.27$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$279.231,45524.7%359 W · 1,096 L-33.3wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-16.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd36…a832backed Yes42c429.45$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.8865043.4%282 W · 368 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes61c344.26$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.8389544.7%400 W · 495 L+30.5wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-5.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc4cc…2a5ebacked Yes77c289.29$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221.875044%22 W · 28 L-12.1wins-0.24per pick68cpaid-32.7%equal weight32-0.16 edge/pick
0xd035…f165backed No35c200.96$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.9759021.7%128 W · 462 L-24.2wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-40.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf7a4…f148backed Yes50c200$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.921,42934.5%493 W · 936 L-6.8wins0.00per pick35cpaid-4.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes29c189.43$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.2365749.8%327 W · 330 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbea5…1de3backed Yes29c179.6$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.14139%16 W · 25 L-4.6wins-0.11per pick50cpaid-39.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5ddb…3fa9backed No32c146.09$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.0331319.2%60 W · 253 L+4.9wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No33c142.28$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.573,05761.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L-35.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed No13c139.56$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.872,09958.3%1,224 W · 875 L+83.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8b8b…2512backed Yes14c138$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.952,09357.1%1,196 W · 897 L+71.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbb42…6e09backed Yes46c134$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.625151%26 W · 25 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No55c125.92$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.6612,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x286d…825abacked No70c121.08$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.6762555.2%345 W · 280 L-12.1wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes35c107.11$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.317,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd2ae…f36bbacked Yes42c106$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.5222746.7%106 W · 121 L-0.8wins0.00per pick47cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa98a…a5a8backed No72c105.12$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.852,01567.7%1,365 W · 650 L+1.8wins0.00per pick68cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No55c100.29$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.089,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes45c100$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4573927.3%202 W · 537 L+10.3wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ce3…31b5backed No51c88.57$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.689536.8%35 W · 60 L-4.8wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-14.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed No70c88.31$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.5710,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x80bb…6ddfbacked No31c77.36$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.761338.5%5 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-20.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes28c75.06$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.95,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc62d…5577backed Yes46c70$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.225038%95 W · 155 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes47c69$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.471,42058.7%833 W · 587 L+69.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9a31…5af1backed Yes51c68.99$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.9470741.7%295 W · 412 L+19.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xff06…c7d5backed No65c68.95$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.8311258.9%66 W · 46 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-7.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe1aa…7429backed Yes32c62.94$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.029426.6%25 W · 69 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-6.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2698…2941backed Yes61c62.9$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.611,01161.2%619 W · 392 L+14.2wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x71b5…6dabbacked No41c62.47$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.084942.9%21 W · 28 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-6.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed No49c58.04$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.321,54360.5%934 W · 609 L-19.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3c11…33c9backed No73c58$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.5189661.7%553 W · 343 L+15.2wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7be0…53d0backed No46c57.25$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.84751.1%24 W · 23 L+3.6wins+0.08per pick44cpaid+20.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1941…deeabacked No54c54.34$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.951,07236.6%392 W · 680 L+25.9wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+0.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1798…1ce9backed Yes37c53.42$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.72,42844.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L-31.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x94b1…27cbbacked No59c50.84$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.8497570.6%688 W · 287 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No54c50$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.11,58661.9%982 W · 604 L+20.2wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes48c50$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5157…fdbcbacked No57c50$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.553353.1%283 W · 250 L-8.8wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb0a5…0a36backed No54c44.33$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.452,08651.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L-45.0wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x69f0…fb27backed Yes74c42.13$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.052,11858.2%1,233 W · 885 L+78.8wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked No57c42$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.062,26239.6%895 W · 1,367 L-56.8wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2654…b45fbacked No41c41.66$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.551,08959.4%647 W · 442 L+2.3wins0.00per pick59cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8778…743abacked Yes49c40.82$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes46c40.29$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.577,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes54c40$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.772,50145.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L+26.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x63a1…0212backed No57c39.36$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.7525258.7%148 W · 104 L-0.8wins0.00per pick59cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes33c39.29$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.94,51452.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L+47.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes78c38$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.644,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xe3a0…b7a2backed No44c38$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.24546.7%21 W · 24 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x200e…7d37backed No44c37.26$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.846767.2%45 W · 22 L+5.3wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+8.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb338…7a24backed No60c36.54$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.75869%40 W · 18 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick71cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xeaef…d242backed Yes67c36$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.143256.3%18 W · 14 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+11.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb2e4…b7f1backed No48c35.9$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.682,06556.3%1,163 W · 902 L+56.7wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc0af…cc7dbacked No48c35.88$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.744647.8%22 W · 24 L+2.4wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+15.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8842…dfa7backed Yes40c35.71$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.4445236.5%165 W · 287 L+20.0wins+0.04per pick32cpaid+7.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1ba2backed Yes63c35.27$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.062040%8 W · 12 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-11.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x90e2…fc3fbacked No38c34.52$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.554148.8%20 W · 21 L+2.4wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+17.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes40c33.92$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.6352446.2%242 W · 282 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed No56c32.98$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.483,47953%1,845 W · 1,634 L+72.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdedd…17e1backed No56c31.41$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.672,43260.4%1,470 W · 962 L+30.2wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaf3c…ddd0backed No62c30.76$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.6946667.6%315 W · 151 L+0.8wins0.00per pick67cpaid+334.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No41c30$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.585,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf279…202cbacked No38c30$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.66448.4%31 W · 33 L+3.2wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+10.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0a0c…a853backed No51c29.18$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.182,24934.2%769 W · 1,480 L+11.6wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No36c28.57$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.331,42852.1%744 W · 684 L-21.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0b18…2639backed Yes43c28$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.1143842%184 W · 254 L-14.7wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-9.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No40c26.95$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.0812,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x53bc…be7cbacked No61c25.97$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.0362770.5%442 W · 185 L-0.2wins0.00per pick71cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb54…d452backed No79c25$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.254,52565.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L-134.0wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4174…18fabacked No45c24.84$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.781,07961.2%660 W · 419 L-5.7wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf5dc…dec3backed No61c24.27$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.361,36069.3%943 W · 417 L+9.4wins+0.01per pick69cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x179e…2fe3backed No54c23.94$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.0110857.4%62 W · 46 L+0.1wins0.00per pick57cpaid-4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x57c5…76c2backed No71c22.51$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.536852.9%36 W · 32 L-7.5wins-0.11per pick64cpaid-20.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x86c2…8010backed No57c22$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.461,27147.6%605 W · 666 L-25.1wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x41fa…7cc4backed No75c21.53$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.4479255.2%437 W · 355 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c70…edf3backed No60c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$812539.2%49 W · 76 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2380…b7f7backed No65c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7540%2 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.28per pick68cpaid-35.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4167…f99abacked No74c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.21,03668.6%711 W · 325 L-33.9wins-0.03per pick72cpaid-4.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked No59c19$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.792,49569.9%1,744 W · 751 L+80.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5968…3fc4backed No60c19$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.642160.6%255 W · 166 L-25.0wins-0.06per pick67cpaid-11.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xc24f…81d3backed No64c17.52$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.3198571%699 W · 286 L+5.7wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.