MLB · resolved market
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x74046b158dda848592667f151853a0e0b4eeafb0be7f26c1873b57979b8bd26a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cleveland Guardiansof Los Angeles Dodgers, Cleveland Guardians
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,249
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,857
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,249 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ade…f5b0backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 45c | 23,385$10,488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,487.79 | 135 | 34.1%46 W · 89 L | -8.5wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa5ea…d96abacked Cleveland Guardians | 55c | 19,547$10,751 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,795.94 | 210 | 40%84 W · 126 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 44c | 6,666$2,966 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,966.36 | 672 | 50.1%337 W · 335 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Cleveland Guardians | 55c | 3,197$1,744 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,452.69 | 1,922 | 53.4%1,027 W · 895 L | +28.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Cleveland Guardians | 56c | 2,678$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,178.32 | 1,408 | 48.8%687 W · 721 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Cleveland Guardians | 60c | 2,197$1,320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$876.17 | 1,041 | 50.1%522 W · 519 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0273…1867backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 40c | 2,181$869 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$869.4 | 293 | 44.7%131 W · 162 L | +13.0wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8e0…ad50backed Cleveland Guardians | 56c | 1,797$1,006 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$790.76 | 311 | 49.2%153 W · 158 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Cleveland Guardians | 56c | 1,454$814 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$639.84 | 1,386 | 50.6%702 W · 684 L | -23.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Cleveland Guardians | 55c | 1,360$748 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$611.78 | 66 | 54.5%36 W · 30 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Cleveland Guardians | 57c | 1,203$682 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$521.02 | 155 | 50.3%78 W · 77 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc42f…9390backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 43c | 1,146$493 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$492.65 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbce1…565dbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 45c | 1,095$493 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$492.58 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Cleveland Guardians | 55c | 948.27$522 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$426.72 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Cleveland Guardians | 55c | 911$501 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$409.95 | 849 | 49.1%417 W · 432 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Cleveland Guardians | 56c | 909$509 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$399.96 | 474 | 47.3%224 W · 250 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Cleveland Guardians | 55c | 906.34$498 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$407.85 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 48c | 891.45$426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$426.15 | 4,087 | 57.6%2,354 W · 1,733 L | +66.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 46c | 428.3$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.02 | 666 | 48.2%321 W · 345 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1aab…773bbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 45c | 287.91$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.56 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf84…d933backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 9c | 257.23$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.01 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1a1…ee48backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 45c | 218.92$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.52 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa877…2e20backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 45c | 166.34$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.85 | 726 | 48.1%349 W · 377 L | -17.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x461c…f74bbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 45c | 109.46$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.26 | 78 | 46.2%36 W · 42 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7634…600dbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 45c | 99.25$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.66 | 603 | 50.1%302 W · 301 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ac…5e19backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 47c | 79.48$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.52 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ec9…02f6backed Cleveland Guardians | 55c | 69.86$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.44 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +29%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf213…a627backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 32c | 60$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 689 | 42.2%291 W · 398 L | +18.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Cleveland Guardians | 68c | 59.22$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.95 | 1,874 | 52%975 W · 899 L | +51.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeecd…4fefbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 45c | 57.63$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.93 | 196 | 56.1%110 W · 86 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed Cleveland Guardians | 58c | 50.97$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.41 | 467 | 59.7%279 W · 188 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46d3…2c20backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 45c | 43.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -5.1wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 44c | 39.27$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.28 | 1,586 | 48.5%770 W · 816 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9856…7014backed Cleveland Guardians | 56c | 35.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.48 | 29 | 72.4%21 W · 8 L | +5.1wins | +0.18per pick | 55cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Cleveland Guardians | 56c | 24.63$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.84 | 899 | 50.6%455 W · 444 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Cleveland Guardians | 55c | 24.49$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.02 | 1,301 | 50.2%653 W · 648 L | +19.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c69…2b8dbacked Cleveland Guardians | 55c | 20.4$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.18 | 307 | 50.2%154 W · 153 L | -7.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5)this page
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Los Angeles DodgersCleveland Guardians won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5Under won
- NRFI: Cleveland Guardians vs. Los Angeles DodgersYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.