Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x740cb01e1fea7dd4648bcaa9133f097108c60beb0275aa7be8fc006a3cf27c30
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,363
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,710
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,363 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf56c…ad84backed Yes | 4c | 299.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 507 | 3.4%17 W · 490 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7196…66dcbacked No | 68c | 184.41$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.41 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 19c | 169$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.64 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8882…03fbbacked Yes | 43c | 104.7$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 517 | 33.3%172 W · 345 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9388…ad42backed No | 52c | 92.36$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.33 | 139 | 59.7%83 W · 56 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 38c | 80$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 37c | 76.05$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.24 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 27c | 62.58$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.62 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x4e52…d110backed Yes | 48c | 61.91$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 29c | 58.57$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.21 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 24c | 58.21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.73 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 55c | 56.02$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.16 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa36b…1d89backed Yes | 38c | 52.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.93 | 555 | 38.4%213 W · 342 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 57c | 50.56$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.55 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x347b…c9bcbacked No | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 201 | 73.1%147 W · 54 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 74cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5eb1…6be9backed No | 60c | 49.73$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.89 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -4.9wins | -0.17per pick | 48cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfeda…b697backed No | 62c | 49.21$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 88 | 72.7%64 W · 24 L | +7.4wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 56c | 48.36$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.28 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dcd…ada0backed Yes | 40c | 45.9$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.16 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 62c | 45.44$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.27 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9892…fd59backed Yes | 38c | 39.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 60 | 45%27 W · 33 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 62c | 39.16$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.88 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1aa…7429backed Yes | 32c | 39$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 94 | 26.6%25 W · 69 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 32c | 37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3c…ddd0backed No | 57c | 35.08$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.08 | 466 | 67.6%315 W · 151 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +334.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 76c | 34$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 62c | 32.15$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.15 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3313…92adbacked Yes | 38c | 28.95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 35c | 28.85$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.68 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22f4…89d3backed Yes | 39c | 28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17fc…0855backed Yes | 47c | 27.8$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd0…b52fbacked Yes | 44c | 27.63$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 229 | 32.3%74 W · 155 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x554f…b2d3backed Yes | 38c | 26.89$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3288…b8cebacked No | 61c | 25.14$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.81 | 77 | 28.6%22 W · 55 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41fa…7cc4backed No | 61c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.65 | 792 | 55.2%437 W · 355 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 62c | 24.98$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.49 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x15b7…4cdebacked No | 60c | 23.45$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.35 | 86 | 61.6%53 W · 33 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x463d…abb2backed No | 53c | 23.35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.9 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | -7.3wins | -0.18per pick | 57cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1e1a…ff36backed No | 65c | 22.49$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.96 | 37 | 73%27 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 69cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32b9…9a9cbacked No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 649 | 60.2%391 W · 258 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76f1…06fbbacked No | 67c | 19.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.7 | 57 | 63.2%36 W · 21 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8786…6884backed No | 57c | 18.78$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.15 | 97 | 61.9%60 W · 37 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on June 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 2?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 35°C on June 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 36°C or higher on June 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.