South American Leagues · resolved market
CA Newell's Old Boys vs. CA Independiente: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x741541938a2c17e0bc71912f3f199d17df9bcc8e423060612f1172e6804f0d2d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,625
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,366
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,625 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 50c | 887.55$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440.31 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad18…0b4fbacked Over | 42c | 865.46$361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$504.15 | 143 | 35.7%51 W · 92 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 56c | 550.46$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.05 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13a5…b620backed Over | 61c | 500$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.19 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 42c | 462.56$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.42 | 1,091 | 55.6%607 W · 484 L | -19.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed Over | 61c | 299.99$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.25per pick | 59cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9b…7303backed Under | 39c | 256.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa60a…1613backed Over | 71c | 239.61$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.49 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Over | 61c | 199.98$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.99 | 154 | 59.7%92 W · 62 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79fd…78cebacked Under | 59c | 191.34$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113 | 178 | 52.8%94 W · 84 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Under | 31c | 188.59$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.46 | 138 | 28.3%39 W · 99 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 39c | 171.21$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.12 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…11a2backed Over | 60c | 166.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.67 | 769 | 51.5%396 W · 373 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd85…6a32backed Under | 40c | 130.76$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.05 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x418b…a741backed Over | 65c | 121.67$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.67 | 359 | 58.8%211 W · 148 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 63c | 121.23$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.32 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…5ab9backed Under | 39c | 115$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.85 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x699c…3600backed Under | 41c | 95$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.95 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 63cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e52…9078backed Over | 55c | 91.09$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.09 | 122 | 39.3%48 W · 74 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…8dbebacked Over | 60c | 89.02$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.61 | 86 | 48.8%42 W · 44 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1c1…275ebacked Under | 45c | 83.49$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1442…b3f5backed Over | 47c | 76.34$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 62c | 61.29$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.29 | 449 | 39.2%176 W · 273 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e60…18dcbacked Under | 47c | 58.35$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.71 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48a9…0d53backed Under | 39c | 56$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.84 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +3.7wins | +0.25per pick | 48cpaid | +45%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2b34…b202backed Under | 39c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -3.3wins | -0.30per pick | 48cpaid | -62.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 39c | 38.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.03 | 2,611 | 54.2%1,415 W · 1,196 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5f2…d72dbacked Over | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 72 | 36.1%26 W · 46 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e2…66e2backed Over | 70c | 36.91$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.07 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa26e…17e3backed Over | 76c | 36.65$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.71 | 30 | 66.7%20 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Under | 54c | 34.5$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.65 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0b…43cbbacked Under | 40c | 33.51$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 250 | 21.6%54 W · 196 L | -9.3wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb717…a67fbacked Over | 61c | 29$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.31 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.17per pick | 54cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe361…bf48backed Over | 48c | 28.88$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.88 | 84 | 33.3%28 W · 56 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4cdb…ae41backed Over | 61c | 27$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.53 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51dd…c727backed Under | 39c | 26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a80…cbf7backed Over | 59c | 26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.66 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -43%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…9f5abacked Over | 61c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +154.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5253…b898backed Over | 61c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77ec…4f9cbacked Over | 59c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.25 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5a9…f72ebacked Over | 59c | 24$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.84 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e9…6613backed Over | 61c | 23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.97 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.27per pick | 59cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x60dc…9a3ebacked Over | 61c | 22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.26per pick | 57cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f96…92e0backed Over | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x727d…1589backed Under | 54c | 19.37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- CA Newell's Old Boys vs. CA Independiente: O/U 1.5this page
- CA Newell's Old Boys vs. CA Independiente: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- CA Newell's Old Boys vs. CA Independiente: O/U 2.5Under won
- CA Newell's Old Boys vs. CA Independiente: O/U 3.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.