South American Leagues · resolved market
CA Newell's Old Boys vs. CA Independiente: Both Teams to Score
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9c0dde2cf3b92243e0622f92f118f8971930d52954180b6ddae446478a342aae
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,686
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,587
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,686 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 55c | 507.67$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.13 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x012a…c01dbacked Yes | 41c | 243.9$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.9 | 57 | 47.4%27 W · 30 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8479…37f8backed Yes | 44c | 230$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.8 | 86 | 24.4%21 W · 65 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c49…ca9dbacked Yes | 50c | 202$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +4.7wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcd53…a861backed Yes | 42c | 172$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.08 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00fe…eff7backed Yes | 43c | 129$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.53 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e52…9078backed Yes | 44c | 113.64$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.64 | 122 | 39.3%48 W · 74 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48a9…0d53backed Yes | 43c | 62$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.34 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +3.7wins | +0.25per pick | 48cpaid | +45%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c0…07d8backed Yes | 43c | 62$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.34 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bea…6ce6backed Yes | 43c | 51$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.07 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1393…8392backed Yes | 43c | 49$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.93 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d10…e17cbacked No | 57c | 41$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.26per pick | 59cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x95c4…a93bbacked No | 58c | 37$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.34 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07eb…4b4cbacked No | 57c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72df…42f6backed No | 58c | 28$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.24 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -3.4wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2fe9…a400backed No | 57c | 28$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa60c…b395backed No | 57c | 26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7d4…c5cdbacked No | 57c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5ff…db1dbacked No | 57c | 24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 56cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x934a…9096backed No | 57c | 24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0068…d7b0backed No | 57c | 24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51e5…9fcabacked No | 57c | 21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e26…c672backed No | 57c | 21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.39per pick | 59cpaid | -71%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb665…95a8backed No | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -3.3wins | -0.30per pick | 66cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 55c | 19.16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f57…6d41backed No | 57c | 18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +48.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecd6…d4dfbacked No | 57c | 18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.15per pick | 57cpaid | +30%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x480a…e3c9backed No | 57c | 18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -3.3wins | -0.42per pick | 54cpaid | -73.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x06b1…614cbacked No | 57c | 18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- CA Newell's Old Boys vs. CA Independiente: Both Teams to Scorethis page
- CA Newell's Old Boys vs. CA Independiente: O/U 1.5Over won
- CA Newell's Old Boys vs. CA Independiente: O/U 2.5Under won
- CA Newell's Old Boys vs. CA Independiente: O/U 3.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.