Australian A League · resolved market
Auckland FC vs. Melbourne Victory FC: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x74252e6f23e9aa23baf8e4c8429dcbc9842ff23a4e8269b1658bb61d77c830c8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Australian A Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,807
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,485
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,807 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Australian A League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Australian A League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 20c | 814.28$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.44 | 988 | 44.4%439 W · 549 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa529…677ebacked Over | 80c | 742.06$594 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.41 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 71cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d46…3e2dbacked Under | 11c | 389$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.79 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +179.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 16c | 371.12$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.79 | 466 | 44.8%209 W · 257 L | -23.0wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x370e…5df3backed Over | 78c | 300$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 61 | 47.5%29 W · 32 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c15…9667backed Under | 22c | 300$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf37…8b49backed Under | 19c | 272.68$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.56 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc482…b505backed Under | 12c | 250$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -4.5wins | -0.19per pick | 60cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 19c | 248.14$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.15 | 132 | 43.2%57 W · 75 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 19c | 243.76$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.45 | 437 | 48.3%211 W · 226 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b55…c5afbacked Under | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21af…6ba0backed Over | 71c | 171.83$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.83 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 19c | 153$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.07 | 108 | 37%40 W · 68 L | -5.9wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e61…0e06backed Under | 14c | 150$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -3.5wins | -0.19per pick | 30cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under | 19c | 123$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.37 | 119 | 40.3%48 W · 71 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 30c | 97$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.51 | 151 | 40.4%61 W · 90 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 71c | 51$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.79 | 88 | 53.4%47 W · 41 L | +8.0wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 68c | 46$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.72 | 309 | 54.7%169 W · 140 L | +8.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e45…efefbacked Over | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 66cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6894…59d8backed Over | 80c | 21.68$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.34 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 64cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Australian A League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Auckland FC vs. Melbourne Victory FC: O/U 1.5this page
- Auckland FC vs. Melbourne Victory FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Auckland FC vs. Melbourne Victory FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Auckland FC vs. Melbourne Victory FC: O/U 3.5Over won
- Auckland FC vs. Melbourne Victory FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Auckland FC (-1.5)Melbourne Victory FC won
- Spread: Auckland FC (-2.5)Melbourne Victory FC won
- Spread: Melbourne Victory FC (-1.5)Auckland FC won
- Spread: Melbourne Victory FC (-2.5)Auckland FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.