Australian A League · resolved market
Auckland FC vs. Melbourne Victory FC: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x62182c1529ac026475dc2d1d81106afbfb1c472301004404faebe1d78e5bccaa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Australian A Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,113
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,312
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,113 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Australian A League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Australian A League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf658…655ebacked Over | 37c | 6,576$2,428 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,428.33 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -3.6wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbed3…2811backed Under | 72c | 3,041$2,181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$859.63 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x479e…91c3backed Under | 79c | 2,540$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$539.87 | 30 | 80%24 W · 6 L | +3.6wins | +0.12per pick | 68cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 25c | 2,506$632 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$631.83 | 988 | 44.4%439 W · 549 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 75c | 2,083$1,560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$523.3 | 466 | 44.8%209 W · 257 L | -23.0wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x66e1…8720backed Under | 80c | 1,191$953 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95ef…ff92backed Over | 12c | 1,049$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 36 | 16.7%6 W · 30 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 71c | 844.71$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.35 | 130 | 49.2%64 W · 66 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd91a…211cbacked Over | 35c | 832.27$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.29 | 59 | 25.4%15 W · 44 L | -5.6wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…4ebbbacked Over | 19c | 789.47$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 81 | 29.6%24 W · 57 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc482…b505backed Under | 71c | 747.87$529 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.04 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -4.5wins | -0.19per pick | 60cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 64c | 615.69$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.36 | 149 | 51%76 W · 73 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54a2…1d43backed Over | 10c | 518.83$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.34 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | +198.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Over | 20c | 505.95$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.95 | 119 | 40.3%48 W · 71 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Over | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +2.6wins | +0.20per pick | 18cpaid | +148.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Over | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 132 | 43.2%57 W · 75 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31d8…a9cebacked Over | 19c | 500$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 86 | 25.6%22 W · 64 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Over | 20c | 415.36$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.32 | 151 | 40.4%61 W · 90 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 68c | 319.33$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.86 | 478 | 50.8%243 W · 235 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f22…2935backed Under | 66c | 271.01$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.01 | 28 | 78.6%22 W · 6 L | +6.7wins | +0.24per pick | 55cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcd…445ebacked Under | 6c | 268$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.94per pick | 6cpaid | +1,566.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Over | 20c | 192.31$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.43 | 108 | 37%40 W · 68 L | -5.9wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c15…9667backed Over | 17c | 147$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36c4…b9c8backed Under | 20c | 126.92$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.80per pick | 20cpaid | +400%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Over | 22c | 120$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a54…4e11backed Over | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.27per pick | 47cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc7…b90dbacked Over | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 48 | 18.8%9 W · 39 L | -7.3wins | -0.15per pick | 34cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…48c8backed Over | 11c | 95.02$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 72 | 54.2%39 W · 33 L | +9.2wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6474…7ab8backed Over | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | -4.1wins | -0.14per pick | 37cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7333…ca16backed Under | 31c | 70$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.59 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.17per pick | 23cpaid | +49.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab7e…b5d1backed Under | 80c | 62.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +47%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Over | 37c | 53.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 94 | 46.8%44 W · 50 L | +6.8wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f6…4f7fbacked Over | 19c | 53.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 61c | 53$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.67 | 235 | 51.5%121 W · 114 L | +13.4wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Under | 76c | 39.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 107 | 57.9%62 W · 45 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cc…f354backed Under | 79c | 39$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.14 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked Over | 28c | 38.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.82 | 60 | 50%30 W · 30 L | -5.0wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x78d8…cffcbacked Under | 76c | 32.86$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.86 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6964…a82fbacked Over | 39c | 32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Under | 66c | 27$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.18 | 58 | 46.6%27 W · 31 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa21f…adddbacked Under | 67c | 22.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.39 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Under | 78c | 20.1$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.38 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.18per pick | 59cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Australian A League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Auckland FC vs. Melbourne Victory FC: O/U 4.5this page
- Auckland FC vs. Melbourne Victory FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Auckland FC vs. Melbourne Victory FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Auckland FC vs. Melbourne Victory FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Auckland FC vs. Melbourne Victory FC: O/U 3.5Over won
- Spread: Auckland FC (-1.5)Melbourne Victory FC won
- Spread: Auckland FC (-2.5)Melbourne Victory FC won
- Spread: Melbourne Victory FC (-1.5)Auckland FC won
- Spread: Melbourne Victory FC (-2.5)Auckland FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.