Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x74318e0673d72fb26a96bcae09d131cfeb786da962be3c6c6e91c6240f25b65a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,843
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,041
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,843 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 20c | 223.91$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.49 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 23c | 171.06$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.96 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 41c | 129.37$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.65 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked Yes | 69c | 110.39$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.97 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6e57…e087backed Yes | 74c | 104.75$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.18 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +2.2wins | +0.13per pick | 55cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb8…0d00backed Yes | 72c | 103.56$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.31 | 206 | 62.1%128 W · 78 L | -14.0wins | -0.07per pick | 69cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 36c | 101.39$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.95 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d4d…1674backed No | 28c | 88$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.52 | 69 | 72.5%50 W · 19 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9388…ad42backed No | 64c | 83.16$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.22 | 139 | 59.7%83 W · 56 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29f8…4d7bbacked Yes | 64c | 78.13$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.13 | 183 | 68.9%126 W · 57 L | +25.2wins | +0.14per pick | 55cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x7c02…7555backed No | 19c | 71.9$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 47c | 61.05$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.49 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No | 51c | 53.73$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.26 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5647…de1dbacked Yes | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.63 | 479 | 35.3%169 W · 310 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f79…af92backed Yes | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -3.5wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8882…03fbbacked Yes | 49c | 45.71$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.46 | 517 | 33.3%172 W · 345 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 43c | 38.77$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.1 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 48c | 37.59$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.39 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 79c | 35.06$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.86 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 51c | 34.91$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.85 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xebf0…2330backed Yes | 65c | 34.09$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.93 | 410 | 51.7%212 W · 198 L | +24.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 38c | 32.04$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.14 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 54c | 31.22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.37 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 61c | 28.19$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.22 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 64c | 27.78$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.78 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59d1…b527backed Yes | 49c | 24.15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.37 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 63c | 23.72$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.83 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked Yes | 65c | 23.08$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.08 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 50c | 22.81$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.46 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 58c | 20.79$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60d8…f2a6backed Yes | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 378 | 35.4%134 W · 244 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50b1…0793backed No | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 436 | 63.5%277 W · 159 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4d…50b1backed No | 72c | 18.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.14 | 129 | 72.1%93 W · 36 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98af…dd79backed No | 58c | 17.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 54 | 57.4%31 W · 23 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on June 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 35°C or higher on June 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.