Tennis · resolved market
Wuhan Tennis Open: Magdalena Frech vs Karolina Muchova
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x74373d5f807b047f15e7f966d43561712fc52d75a89a6a218a48936954b5174a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Frechof Frech, Muchova
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,099
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,402
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,099 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x60cc…f0dfbacked Muchova | 30c | 3,000$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 145 | 49%71 W · 74 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb7…04d8backed Muchova | 4c | 2,785$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 141 | 40.4%57 W · 84 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Frech | 65c | 2,096$1,362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$733.72 | 1,090 | 35.9%391 W · 699 L | +16.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fb7…082dbacked Frech | 39c | 1,517$593 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$923.56 | 81 | 48.1%39 W · 42 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f88…ca51backed Frech | 70c | 659.99$460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.8 | 671 | 31.3%210 W · 461 L | -15.1wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Frech | 52c | 621$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.14 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Frech | 21c | 604$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$475.99 | 8,241 | 45.5%3,746 W · 4,495 L | +166.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d0…5c32backed Frech | 19c | 555$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$449.55 | 226 | 29.2%66 W · 160 L | +7.1wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Frech | 47c | 355$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.56 | 1,655 | 50.1%829 W · 826 L | +30.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Frech | 73c | 257.26$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.53 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fa7…04bfbacked Muchova | 36c | 237.06$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 69 | 49.3%34 W · 35 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb01…635bbacked Frech | 19c | 202.14$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.41 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | +29%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Frech | 16c | 162$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.21 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacdf…0ec4backed Frech | 32c | 150$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.4 | 85 | 62.4%53 W · 32 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8e3…b3a4backed Muchova | 30c | 108.33$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x64ae…ead9backed Muchova | 29c | 103.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 606 | 41.6%252 W · 354 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Frech | 13c | 94.47$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.81 | 652 | 42.8%279 W · 373 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7312…d40dbacked Muchova | 39c | 88.32$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.49 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | -6.9wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Muchova | 34c | 77.48$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.71 | 439 | 48.5%213 W · 226 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Frech | 70c | 36$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 267 | 46.1%123 W · 144 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.