Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on July 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7445783d9a107e990c38213a1fd5ac0cd63cf7cd524cd7b08d062bcd0d850dd2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,483
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,084
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,483 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 57c | 369.29$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.1 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 57c | 338.51$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.27 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 62c | 149$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.72 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed29…3848backed Yes | 42c | 143.68$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 50 | 28%14 W · 36 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +47.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f98…e397backed Yes | 42c | 125$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.75 | 331 | 54.4%180 W · 151 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 53c | 113.04$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.81 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 33c | 105.44$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.32 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x445f…229fbacked Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 140 | 34.3%48 W · 92 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 45c | 99.19$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.87 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 42c | 87$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.54 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b35…bb20backed Yes | 44c | 80.3$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 82 | 63.4%52 W · 30 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 46c | 80.15$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.19 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 42c | 80$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.9 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 42c | 74.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.6 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf875…814dbacked No | 55c | 74.99$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 94 | 58.5%55 W · 39 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 43c | 71.44$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.71 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 53c | 68.34$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.37 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74ff…3208backed Yes | 43c | 65.62$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.05 | 104 | 36.5%38 W · 66 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d7e…6be6backed Yes | 48c | 62.02$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3daf…15d6backed Yes | 39c | 60$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -12%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65c7…e100backed Yes | 45c | 59.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 227 | 44.1%100 W · 127 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 70c | 58.92$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.79 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2df9…4534backed Yes | 44c | 56.01$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.64 | 257 | 47.5%122 W · 135 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 56c | 52.91$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.25 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 40c | 52.53$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.94 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa03c…9a81backed Yes | 42c | 47.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 43c | 46.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb33…19d9backed Yes | 67c | 44.62$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 64 | 37.5%24 W · 40 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x634d…4d02backed Yes | 47c | 43.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.19 | 127 | 47.2%60 W · 67 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 47c | 42.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacb0…4346backed Yes | 48c | 41.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 159 | 48.4%77 W · 82 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 57c | 40.25$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes | 57c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.79 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1a…4c96backed Yes | 42c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 67c | 38.54$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.65 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6d3…118ebacked Yes | 42c | 34.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.59 | 208 | 42.8%89 W · 119 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 71c | 33.32$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.78 | 622 | 75.2%468 W · 154 L | +15.5wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 49c | 31.49$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.21 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 61c | 30.18$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.64 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 44c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.9 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x19ca…59eebacked Yes | 35c | 29.05$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 57 | 29.8%17 W · 40 L | -11.6wins | -0.20per pick | 50cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 44c | 28.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.43 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 54c | 28.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.24 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x22b4…5025backed Yes | 57c | 27.68$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.83 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 41c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0db1…6272backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd654…2efebacked No | 57c | 24.59$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.53 | 404 | 61.4%248 W · 156 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked No | 57c | 20.05$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.62 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 60c | 19.36$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 61c | 19.3$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.44 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31a4…dd86backed No | 58c | 18.91$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.94 | 85 | 64.7%55 W · 30 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f24…64b5backed No | 61c | 18.58$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.29 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 60c | 18.3$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.38 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 68c | 17.96$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.81 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 58c | 17.59$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.3 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on July 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on July 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on July 13?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on July 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on July 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.