Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on July 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb4daf206d63d97f81ad701463e2a8cfe4f9843496fda0ee6af3d9d29e1bbe416
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,951
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,652
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,951 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 64c | 426.15$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.96 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 30c | 257.38$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.36 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 33c | 243.5$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.9 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 32c | 186.87$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.25 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 36c | 185.77$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.48 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 71c | 162.81$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.14 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 34c | 154.98$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.4 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 16c | 154.8$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.18 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8798…76cebacked No | 79c | 149.33$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.55 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a6a…b380backed Yes | 29c | 132.37$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.98 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +3.5wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4138…6a24backed Yes | 75c | 129$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.67 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f98…e397backed Yes | 31c | 125$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.25 | 331 | 54.4%180 W · 151 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 26c | 116.83$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.93 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 70c | 112.6$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.15 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 47c | 106.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.15 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 31c | 101.99$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.45 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked Yes | 71c | 89.47$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.65 | 399 | 66.2%264 W · 135 L | +33.6wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.15 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 40c | 80$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.32 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 30c | 74.43$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.11 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc5…d6b7backed No | 63c | 73.71$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.57 | 274 | 61.7%169 W · 105 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07d6…64fbbacked No | 70c | 73.4$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.18 | 210 | 68.6%144 W · 66 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 18c | 71$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.22 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb56c…30f3backed Yes | 56c | 70.49$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.23 | 104 | 55.8%58 W · 46 L | +10.4wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 68c | 69.27$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 32c | 68.93$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.98 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 69c | 68.79$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.53 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 32c | 68$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.41 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 66c | 66$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.64 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 35c | 56.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.46 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 60c | 54.7$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.82 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 38c | 54.43$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.72 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f88…cdcbbacked Yes | 38c | 52.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.78 | 65 | 33.8%22 W · 43 L | -4.7wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…3925backed Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.5 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | -6.7wins | -0.15per pick | 43cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc4…4089backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 38c | 45.71$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.34 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 70c | 44.49$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.3 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 63c | 41.89$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06e3…0f3ebacked No | 73c | 40.85$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 49c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 70c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 54c | 39.68$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.61 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0838…64f6backed Yes | 38c | 39.32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.32 | 210 | 52.4%110 W · 100 L | +14.7wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 70c | 37.69$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.38 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cbe…e435backed Yes | 40c | 37.66$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.66 | 244 | 51.2%125 W · 119 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ca6…4beabacked Yes | 64c | 37.45$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.45 | 73 | 68.5%50 W · 23 L | +5.5wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x31a4…dd86backed No | 66c | 37.34$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.54 | 85 | 64.7%55 W · 30 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 61c | 37.32$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.89 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x22b4…5025backed Yes | 36c | 36.22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.22 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed Yes | 37c | 35.57$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.53 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4149…44c4backed Yes | 37c | 35.57$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.43 | 154 | 49.4%76 W · 78 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 41c | 34.5$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.3 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 40c | 33.79$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.42 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 67c | 30.73$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.59 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x589b…0381backed Yes | 64c | 30.73$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 63c | 29.69$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.55 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed Yes | 37c | 29.47$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.47 | 384 | 54.9%211 W · 173 L | +26.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 56c | 27.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x19ca…59eebacked No | 52c | 24.74$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 57 | 29.8%17 W · 40 L | -11.6wins | -0.20per pick | 50cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.55 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 72c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc67e…8929backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -15%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 66c | 18.57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.31 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x462c…47afbacked No | 70c | 18.44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe010…5147backed No | 64c | 17.85$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 59 | 30.5%18 W · 41 L | -17.1wins | -0.29per pick | 59cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 27-0.20 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 66c | 15.58$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 76c | 13.62$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.27 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on July 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on July 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on July 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on July 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on July 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.