Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x745821bbe4036c48dac222d1ee0d25bef5a9592caabe2f2b40773a6746e85058
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,742
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,490
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,742 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1d30…91d6backed Yes | 30c | 1,108$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331.87 | 172 | 31.4%54 W · 118 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x488c…8c1cbacked Yes | 3c | 1,000$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 375 | 32.8%123 W · 252 L | +36.4wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +109.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6a17…d13ebacked Yes | 5c | 910.05$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.5 | 106 | 33%35 W · 71 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 1c | 876.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.71 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b4e…d839backed Yes | 11c | 839.5$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.45 | 227 | 28.6%65 W · 162 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16ce…eba1backed Yes | 1c | 768.03$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 124 | 5.6%7 W · 117 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65b7…3798backed Yes | 44c | 655.15$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.75 | 91 | 48.4%44 W · 47 L | +11.5wins | +0.13per pick | 36cpaid | +59.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd721…57a7backed Yes | 4c | 631.05$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.59 | 451 | 27.1%122 W · 329 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 9c | 540.3$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.31 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 53c | 521.62$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.7 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 461$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 5c | 458.14$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.98 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2d4…5391backed Yes | 5c | 399.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 22cpaid | -84.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87d8…ccf3backed Yes | 6c | 330$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 62 | 33.9%21 W · 41 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf913…9e87backed No | 76c | 300$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.4 | 90 | 66.7%60 W · 30 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6780…41ccbacked Yes | 48c | 248.57$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.82 | 270 | 51.1%138 W · 132 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x92c9…c500backed Yes | 49c | 204.95$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | +3.7wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…a3a5backed Yes | 5c | 199.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 150 | 51.3%77 W · 73 L | +12.7wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed No | 79c | 195.73$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.69 | 656 | 27.4%180 W · 476 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef1a…319dbacked No | 35c | 170.04$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.04 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed No | 63c | 155.89$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.74 | 466 | 26%121 W · 345 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd6e…4409backed No | 35c | 145.78$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.18 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +2.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 67c | 130$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.9 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa081…e7a0backed No | 50c | 120$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.2 | 389 | 61.7%240 W · 149 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f33…1ab8backed No | 34c | 118.49$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.49 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +4.6wins | +0.17per pick | 39cpaid | +48.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 51c | 117.77$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.27 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x83cd…e218backed Yes | 55c | 117.52$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.2 | 94 | 48.9%46 W · 48 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf78…c915backed Yes | 30c | 90.52$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.99 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -4.3wins | -0.20per pick | 38cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x86f7…1f0abacked Yes | 59c | 85.22$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96e6…fecebacked Yes | 29c | 84.89$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 261 | 42.1%110 W · 151 L | +15.8wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 61c | 81.17$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.48 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 37c | 80.42$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.5 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ecc…c745backed No | 43c | 77.19$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.83 | 179 | 47.5%85 W · 94 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc878…a6f3backed Yes | 27c | 74.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 156 | 46.8%73 W · 83 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xebf0…2330backed No | 35c | 66.96$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.82 | 410 | 51.7%212 W · 198 L | +24.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…abffbacked Yes | 18c | 62.54$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 306 | 65%199 W · 107 L | +14.5wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 60c | 60$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 69c | 57.22$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.49 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 31c | 55.49$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.41 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 58c | 51.24$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.55 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43b0…1402backed Yes | 26c | 45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 163 | 39.9%65 W · 98 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9907…8a50backed No | 53c | 44.36$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.86 | 80 | 46.3%37 W · 43 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked Yes | 47c | 42.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 420 | 61.2%257 W · 163 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 65c | 38.46$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.46 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked Yes | 58c | 35.89$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.92 | 227 | 46.7%106 W · 121 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x557a…1ecdbacked Yes | 49c | 35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3f0…a4ccbacked Yes | 49c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.61 | 235 | 40.9%96 W · 139 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 77c | 28$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.44 | 495 | 43.6%216 W · 279 L | +31.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 65c | 27.71$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.77 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…e43ebacked No | 76c | 27.02$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.39 | 180 | 60%108 W · 72 L | -21.2wins | -0.12per pick | 72cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 49c | 24.32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.81 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 57c | 23$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.89 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97ad…9a0dbacked Yes | 60c | 22.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.69 | 234 | 63.7%149 W · 85 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 68c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.72 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 6?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C or higher on June 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.