Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8e3a17332dfc5e686b94e3e22fe338ef71918f715d671f428b84bc7c0bc82788
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,587
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,968
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,587 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcf23…0d5dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,883$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 66 | 34.8%23 W · 43 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d30…91d6backed Yes | 69c | 1,212$840 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$840.25 | 172 | 31.4%54 W · 118 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8882…03fbbacked Yes | 30c | 506.42$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.78 | 517 | 33.3%172 W · 345 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 76c | 396.5$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.03 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b4e…d839backed Yes | 23c | 375.27$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.98 | 227 | 28.6%65 W · 162 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 32c | 255.5$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.27 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed No | 32c | 196.32$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.66 | 466 | 26%121 W · 345 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 28c | 180$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.63 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa30f…4da6backed Yes | 25c | 176.4$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.42 | 211 | 32.2%68 W · 143 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65b7…3798backed Yes | 18c | 161$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.77 | 91 | 48.4%44 W · 47 L | +11.5wins | +0.13per pick | 36cpaid | +59.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 67c | 129.93$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.88 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 47c | 121.99$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.32 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xc878…a6f3backed Yes | 39c | 116.11$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 156 | 46.8%73 W · 83 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 72c | 110.9$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.33 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59ce…e3f0backed No | 76c | 104.98$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.49 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x557a…1ecdbacked Yes | 20c | 101.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c99…3cc4backed Yes | 17c | 99.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 71 | 29.6%21 W · 50 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86d8…52d5backed Yes | 11c | 97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 82 | 29.3%24 W · 58 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 78c | 87$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.78 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 69c | 79$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.76 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 25c | 78.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 22c | 78.05$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.58 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 75c | 66$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.74 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 70c | 59.58$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.75 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bc9…c353backed Yes | 21c | 59.52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 57 | 26.3%15 W · 42 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 44c | 57.22$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.93 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7615…308abacked No | 29c | 54.07$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.26 | 184 | 41.3%76 W · 108 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -23%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 77c | 53.03$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.12 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 69c | 43.63$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.32 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Yes | 54c | 39.09$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.3 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9907…8a50backed Yes | 65c | 36$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.44 | 80 | 46.3%37 W · 43 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 68c | 34.78$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 46c | 32.38$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.38 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 76c | 32$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.68 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc3…4972backed Yes | 57c | 31.77$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 54c | 31.2$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.26 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 51c | 30.05$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.61 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 61c | 29.41$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.51 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 52c | 28.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.54 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 63c | 27$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.99 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15b7…4cdebacked No | 57c | 23.66$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.17 | 86 | 61.6%53 W · 33 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 52c | 23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.06 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed No | 68c | 22.68$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.26 | 503 | 73.2%368 W · 135 L | +25.3wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 50c | 20.71$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.36 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea21…f753backed Yes | 70c | 17.58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 236 | 68.2%161 W · 75 L | +18.8wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 74c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.37 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 80c | 16.95$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.39 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 73c | 15.88$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.34 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 78c | 15.85$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.51 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59ad…0cf2backed No | 73c | 14.03$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.79 | 67 | 61.2%41 W · 26 L | -7.0wins | -0.10per pick | 72cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 6?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C or higher on June 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.