Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 26°C on July 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7473039508c61fdf2cd550cbe868e87f57a653d284ea77be588fe48cbc3faf0d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,982
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,227
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,982 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 7c | 593.79$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$550.15 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 8c | 286$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.55 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 66c | 213.95$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.74 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 15c | 186.83$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.31 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 12c | 168.72$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.31 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 23c | 136.79$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.42 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cc…6171backed Yes | 67c | 134.39$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 37c | 133.94$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.74 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 21c | 127.95$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed No | 17c | 90$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 17c | 85.51$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.23 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked Yes | 29c | 75.32$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.78 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x34d5…a977backed Yes | 24c | 71.14$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.87 | 230 | 30.9%71 W · 159 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No | 78c | 62.66$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.75 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 72c | 62.48$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.99 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc5…d6b7backed No | 79c | 62.4$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.52 | 274 | 61.7%169 W · 105 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 29c | 61$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.68 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 66c | 60$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x254a…dacbbacked Yes | 19c | 57.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.81 | 169 | 50.9%86 W · 83 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a59…8e5cbacked Yes | 24c | 45.16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.37 | 303 | 33%100 W · 203 L | +16.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4e…7dbbbacked No | 29c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.42 | 386 | 55.7%215 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2e5…f172backed No | 73c | 40$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.3 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.7wins | -0.17per pick | 54cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f61…840abacked Yes | 39c | 36.9$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 375 | 70.7%265 W · 110 L | +62.7wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ea…c336backed Yes | 39c | 36.14$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.05 | 84 | 54.8%46 W · 38 L | +7.8wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 33c | 35.95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.86 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 33c | 35.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.67 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 43c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x438a…61c4backed Yes | 57c | 29.12$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.52 | 231 | 43.3%100 W · 131 L | +19.0wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6b36…0d4bbacked Yes | 72c | 27.8$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.81 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | -4.9wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked Yes | 74c | 27.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Yes | 73c | 26.66$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.29 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 56c | 19.01$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.38 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…fb48backed No | 58c | 18.23$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 542 | 34.9%189 W · 353 L | -30.1wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 72c | 18.08$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.08 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked Yes | 74c | 16.01$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.16 | 472 | 39.8%188 W · 284 L | +31.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 72c | 15.45$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.34 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 26°C on July 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on July 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on July 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on July 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C on July 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.