NBA · resolved market
Will Luka record a Triple Double tonight?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x74742f6f437e792d4da8b8a8cec810356a120662ebead0789a2ddd7d2ef7b4d7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,202
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,499
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,202 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked Yes | 18c | 431.74$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354.03 | 194 | 48.5%94 W · 100 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7784…5b6dbacked No | 18c | 376.24$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.02 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…01cebacked Yes | 20c | 300$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc693…c4e0backed Yes | 80c | 300$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.20per pick | 58cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x00e2…d56abacked No | 79c | 276.49$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.59 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +109.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f41…83f5backed No | 80c | 250$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 245 | 49%120 W · 125 L | +8.4wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe408…232bbacked No | 58c | 183.19$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.79 | 68 | 47.1%32 W · 36 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f1…bd6abacked Yes | 20c | 170.6$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.48 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed No | 58c | 168.25$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.28 | 232 | 37.1%86 W · 146 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9053…2178backed Yes | 19c | 105$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.05 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +285.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc04d…69e7backed No | 80c | 101.65$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.32 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f19…aec2backed No | 80c | 100$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 367 | 47.7%175 W · 192 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa098…f430backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cc…a23abacked No | 20c | 99.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 229 | 39.7%91 W · 138 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcd0…157dbacked Yes | 23c | 82.08$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.08 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ec0…cff7backed Yes | 19c | 77$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.37 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.81per pick | 19cpaid | +426.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa020…d807backed Yes | 20c | 59.15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.32 | 42 | 21.4%9 W · 33 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4790…37f3backed Yes | 20c | 58$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…6e14backed Yes | 20c | 57$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 34cpaid | +115.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed No | 80c | 54$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 112 | 50%56 W · 56 L | +8.2wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcab4…6f72backed Yes | 20c | 53.4$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.72 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +150%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x106d…2167backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b13…28adbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40a…4d6ebacked No | 80c | 49$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7e8…8cfcbacked No | 80c | 48$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7be6…a8bcbacked Yes | 76c | 34.5$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -31%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4447…a0e7backed Yes | 79c | 17.72$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.72 | 94 | 50%47 W · 47 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.