Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs BALU (BO3) - European Pro League Group A
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x74a4601e8856e96b045a5c96eb0454932e0cf1b79f34aa7ae3287b009b19c9e1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Ilbirs eSportsof Ilbirs eSports, BALU
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,835
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,140
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,835 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8681…ef99backed Ilbirs eSports | 66c | 1,732$1,135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$596.61 | 67 | 46.3%31 W · 36 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06c0…e618backed Ilbirs eSports | 67c | 1,191$794 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$396.7 | 57 | 61.4%35 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f3f…5878backed BALU | 34c | 1,173$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$398.9 | 81 | 37%30 W · 51 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…165bbacked BALU | 10c | 1,131$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.62 | 1,275 | 33.5%427 W · 848 L | -15.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa62b…0f85backed BALU | 34c | 1,104$373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$373.18 | 117 | 42.7%50 W · 67 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8adc…bafcbacked BALU | 34c | 770.38$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.93 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked BALU | 33c | 599.99$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198 | 562 | 43.2%243 W · 319 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed BALU | 35c | 535.63$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.44 | 1,272 | 45%572 W · 700 L | -40.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17ca…87d1backed Ilbirs eSports | 72c | 479.93$346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.38 | 195 | 52.8%103 W · 92 L | -15.2wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -15%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x974f…cd80backed BALU | 32c | 330.92$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.9 | 551 | 47.5%262 W · 289 L | +22.3wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91ac…5ff3backed BALU | 33c | 300$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 213 | 44.1%94 W · 119 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed BALU | 35c | 257.55$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.3 | 91 | 56%51 W · 40 L | +6.7wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6983…88c3backed BALU | 32c | 239.8$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.74 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d3…b8debacked Ilbirs eSports | 67c | 194.06$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.04 | 700 | 52.3%366 W · 334 L | +47.1wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5625…6c2abacked Ilbirs eSports | 65c | 150.62$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.72 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -6.5wins | -0.23per pick | 52cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xd17a…0373backed Ilbirs eSports | 67c | 147.03$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.52 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.9wins | +0.29per pick | 51cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1018…7264backed BALU | 10c | 143.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x63c4…26f2backed BALU | 31c | 131.03$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.62 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Ilbirs eSports | 65c | 121.05$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.8 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffb…f7f0backed BALU | 34c | 114.34$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.41 | 515 | 50.9%262 W · 253 L | +15.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked BALU | 33c | 110$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.3 | 702 | 36.6%257 W · 445 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7248…8cb4backed Ilbirs eSports | 66c | 109$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.06 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd74…76b9backed BALU | 34c | 103.58$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.22 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | -3.7wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe463…f7b2backed BALU | 33c | 99.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 208 | 38.9%81 W · 127 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac5…f963backed Ilbirs eSports | 65c | 80.49$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.17 | 122 | 52.5%64 W · 58 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x34c5…db89backed BALU | 34c | 80$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.8 | 127 | 59.8%76 W · 51 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1709…c148backed Ilbirs eSports | 66c | 71.68$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.37 | 483 | 52.4%253 W · 230 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4994…3e36backed Ilbirs eSports | 68c | 70.4$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.31 | 99 | 64.6%64 W · 35 L | +19.9wins | +0.20per pick | 45cpaid | +67.7%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x3e96…0d6cbacked BALU | 35c | 57.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked Ilbirs eSports | 66c | 56$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.04 | 253 | 48.6%123 W · 130 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Ilbirs eSports | 67c | 48$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.84 | 1,260 | 49.7%626 W · 634 L | +21.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Ilbirs eSports | 66c | 40.78$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.86 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked BALU | 34c | 37.46$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.73 | 63 | 42.9%27 W · 36 L | -4.8wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x53fc…76d7backed Ilbirs eSports | 66c | 32.33$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.99 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4877…e65ebacked Ilbirs eSports | 66c | 32.06$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd43e…3604backed Ilbirs eSports | 69c | 29.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.13 | 11 | 100%11 W · 0 L | +3.8wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +54.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf127…36afbacked Ilbirs eSports | 66c | 26.72$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.08 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66ed…d321backed Ilbirs eSports | 73c | 25.48$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.88 | 340 | 45.9%156 W · 184 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d2b…5271backed Ilbirs eSports | 67c | 19.51$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.44 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0caa…b2bdbacked Ilbirs eSports | 65c | 19.14$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.77 | 147 | 62.6%92 W · 55 L | +8.2wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6d…8793backed Ilbirs eSports | 71c | 16.61$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs BALU (BO3) - European Pro League Group Athis page
- Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs BALU - Game 1 WinnerIlbirs eSports won
- Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs BALU - Game 2 WinnerIlbirs eSports won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.