Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: Duke Blue Devils (-11.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x74bc8833e8e325f49b8e3e0d51ecc33f461a7cb774a17c256a568fe05927bc8b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Connecticut Huskiesof Duke Blue Devils, Connecticut Huskies
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,496
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,434
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,496 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Duke Blue Devils | 46c | 2,087$969 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$968.93 | 462 | 46.5%215 W · 247 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ca…a175backed Connecticut Huskies | 49c | 1,814$886 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$927.95 | 105 | 43.8%46 W · 59 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Connecticut Huskies | 58c | 1,028$593 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$435.5 | 2,003 | 53.7%1,076 W · 927 L | +101.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e3…1080backed Connecticut Huskies | 47c | 1,000$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$530 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Connecticut Huskies | 60c | 952.96$572 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$381.18 | 646 | 47.5%307 W · 339 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe558…dcd2backed Duke Blue Devils | 53c | 833.69$442 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$441.86 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Duke Blue Devils | 41c | 403.08$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.77 | 1,234 | 44.8%553 W · 681 L | -32.8wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcec1…9c0cbacked Duke Blue Devils | 40c | 402.77$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.11 | 74 | 47.3%35 W · 39 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +53.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb145…df85backed Duke Blue Devils | 56c | 354.15$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.28 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Connecticut Huskies | 52c | 208.2$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.9 | 4,848 | 52.2%2,532 W · 2,316 L | +139.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xacb4…7595backed Duke Blue Devils | 56c | 195.49$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.43 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Duke Blue Devils | 52c | 111.67$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.37 | 3,380 | 49.5%1,673 W · 1,707 L | +30.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b02…f3d9backed Connecticut Huskies | 47c | 99.91$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.05 | 59 | 59.3%35 W · 24 L | +7.9wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +28%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1970…e980backed Duke Blue Devils | 44c | 90.72$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.21 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8af9…c3e8backed Connecticut Huskies | 30c | 90$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 53 | 58.5%31 W · 22 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Duke Blue Devils | 70c | 89.34$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.54 | 906 | 45.4%411 W · 495 L | +9.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5748…3c7bbacked Duke Blue Devils | 45c | 70.42$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.95 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Duke Blue Devils | 56c | 59.48$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.31 | 227 | 56.4%128 W · 99 L | +18.5wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3b…5fa5backed Connecticut Huskies | 44c | 45.06$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.24 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Duke Blue Devils | 40c | 45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1,249 | 16.4%205 W · 1,044 L | -189.4wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x8482…3f7abacked Connecticut Huskies | 56c | 25.5$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…d603backed Connecticut Huskies | 60c | 24.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.92 | 330 | 58.2%192 W · 138 L | +24.2wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Connecticut Huskies | 50c | 23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 3,905 | 58.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L | +165.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba86…6831backed Connecticut Huskies | 55c | 19.49$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.78 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +90.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24ca…5829backed Connecticut Huskies | 61c | 19.34$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.54 | 155 | 51.6%80 W · 75 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Duke Blue Devils (-11.5)this page
- Connecticut Huskies vs. Duke Blue DevilsConnecticut Huskies won
- Connecticut Huskies vs. Duke Blue Devils: O/U 133.5Over won
- Connecticut Huskies vs. Duke Blue Devils: O/U 134.5Over won
- Connecticut Huskies vs. Duke Blue Devils: O/U 140.5Over won
- Connecticut Huskies vs. Duke Blue Devils: O/U 145.5Under won
- Connecticut Huskies vs. Duke Blue Devils: O/U 146.5Under won
- Connecticut Huskies vs. Duke Blue Devils: O/U 148.5Under won
- Connecticut Huskies vs. Duke Blue Devils: O/U 149.5Under won
- Connecticut Huskies vs. Duke Blue Devils: O/U 150.5Under won
- Spread: Duke Blue Devils (-12.5)Connecticut Huskies won
- Spread: Duke Blue Devils (-13.5)Connecticut Huskies won
- Spread: Duke Blue Devils (-14.5)Connecticut Huskies won
- Spread: Duke Blue Devils (-4.5)Connecticut Huskies won
- Spread: Duke Blue Devils (-5.5)Connecticut Huskies won
- Spread: Duke Blue Devils (-8.5)Connecticut Huskies won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.