Tennis · resolved market
Almaty Open: Gabriel Diallo vs James Duckworth
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7529480ccb485e85c9af8a7ab3a678f2ae71fc8446d3e9105e3e1b494ab20caf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Duckworthof Diallo, Duckworth
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,584
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,198
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,584 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Duckworth | 27c | 7,569$2,043 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,525.24 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac75…1319backed Diallo | 78c | 7,550$5,889 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,889 | 111 | 49.5%55 W · 56 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3993…cdedbacked Duckworth | 33c | 2,671$893 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,777.87 | 76 | 55.3%42 W · 34 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Duckworth | 41c | 2,091$857 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,233.87 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae87…e848backed Diallo | 58c | 1,710$985 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$985.22 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef5…39edbacked Duckworth | 41c | 1,208$495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$712.52 | 257 | 22.2%57 W · 200 L | -12.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…ff0ebacked Diallo | 62c | 1,202$745 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$745 | 591 | 51.6%305 W · 286 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56fb…3b99backed Duckworth | 23c | 1,000$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$770 | 85 | 30.6%26 W · 59 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd82a…5fcfbacked Diallo | 62c | 978.18$611 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$611.36 | 189 | 43.4%82 W · 107 L | -8.8wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Diallo | 44c | 600$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.94 | 819 | 38.9%319 W · 500 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe671…a682backed Diallo | 66c | 600$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396 | 576 | 45.5%262 W · 314 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Diallo | 78c | 504.55$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$394.55 | 1,039 | 54.6%567 W · 472 L | +37.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Duckworth | 52c | 480.45$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.66 | 652 | 42.8%279 W · 373 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd941…bc46backed Duckworth | 22c | 454.55$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354.55 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9354…6502backed Diallo | 55c | 450.27$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.99 | 755 | 47.8%361 W · 394 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Duckworth | 45c | 400.56$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.89 | 6,720 | 36.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L | -95.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Duckworth | 62c | 365.95$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.43 | 77 | 44.2%34 W · 43 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Duckworth | 26c | 350$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.88 | 1,655 | 50.1%829 W · 826 L | +30.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30ef…70dfbacked Duckworth | 19c | 288.65$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234 | 441 | 25.4%112 W · 329 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Duckworth | 41c | 253.48$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.9 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb478…ac0abacked Diallo | 15c | 232.46$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 360 | 47.2%170 W · 190 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61c1…0513backed Diallo | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,287 | 60.7%781 W · 506 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36bf…2864backed Duckworth | 21c | 200$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159 | 444 | 23.9%106 W · 338 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Diallo | 62c | 195.5$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.21 | 248 | 46%114 W · 134 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Diallo | 80c | 150$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 2,865 | 44.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L | +6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d81…259bbacked Diallo | 45c | 89.03$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3823…2784backed Duckworth | 44c | 68.52$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.52 | 321 | 61.7%198 W · 123 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25bf…7a56backed Diallo | 50c | 60.46$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2,335 | 46.6%1,088 W · 1,247 L | +55.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3579…0cbfbacked Diallo | 46c | 53.52$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.55 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | +76%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Duckworth | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 639 | 42.4%271 W · 368 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Diallo | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc398…f446backed Duckworth | 44c | 47.79$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.65 | 960 | 35.4%340 W · 620 L | -40.5wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8747…8b5dbacked Diallo | 79c | 34.93$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.64 | 51 | 70.6%36 W · 15 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 66cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe0…7f8bbacked Duckworth | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Diallo | 79c | 30$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.7 | 627 | 42.4%266 W · 361 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b9f…d2b9backed Diallo | 79c | 19.77$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.62 | 52 | 55.8%29 W · 23 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.