Europa Conference League · resolved market
Samsunspor vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x753c458cf1ade67c29092ed565a106a5862d9af5de595318449811e9120a99df
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,419
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,419 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 66c | 1,299$854 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$445.03 | 2,999 | 42.4%1,273 W · 1,726 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Over | 11c | 1,247$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.28 | 67 | 22.4%15 W · 52 L | -5.3wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3b7c…4cbfbacked Over | 43c | 697.67$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf715…bbf0backed Over | 10c | 685.57$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.35 | 35 | 22.9%8 W · 27 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d71…7387backed Over | 17c | 501.83$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 8c | 263.15$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.37 | 178 | 55.6%99 W · 79 L | +14.6wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Over | 18c | 227.93$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.09 | 165 | 43.6%72 W · 93 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Under | 60c | 143.26$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.93 | 218 | 35.8%78 W · 140 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 37c | 139.6$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 94 | 43.6%41 W · 53 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23ea…1c3fbacked Over | 43c | 139.53$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -44%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 10c | 133.79$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.73 | 382 | 47.1%180 W · 202 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Over | 14c | 99.19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.54 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 26c | 96.15$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 147 | 41.5%61 W · 86 L | -14.5wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x34f1…5fd6backed Over | 38c | 78.95$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.25per pick | 35cpaid | +112.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7602…2775backed Over | 19c | 65.28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.14per pick | 22cpaid | -82%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41ad…8dddbacked Over | 22c | 51.32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 32 | 12.5%4 W · 28 L | -4.7wins | -0.15per pick | 27cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc0fb…ec4fbacked Over | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3bcf…402abacked Over | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 82 | 29.3%24 W · 58 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb226…4469backed Under | 75c | 34.47$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.67 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa658…f93ebacked Under | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 71cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Under | 73c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 149 | 63.1%94 W · 55 L | +8.7wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Samsunspor vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 4.5this page
- Samsunspor vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Samsunspor vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 1.5Over won
- Samsunspor vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 2.5Over won
- Samsunspor vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 3.5Over won
- Spread: Samsunspor (-1.5)Rayo Vallecano de Madrid won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.