Europa Conference League · resolved market
Samsunspor vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeed22deee487cfbf19d35bd8f5ce88862c3140ab1b758dd50fcd4890b5df959e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,263
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,263 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 41c | 3,826$1,583 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,583.28 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2bb…ea55backed Over | 55c | 3,300$1,815 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,485 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | +3.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 38c | 3,296$1,245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,245.47 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab90…5793backed Over | 77c | 2,200$1,694 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$505.99 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 75cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 45c | 1,431$644 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$644 | 522 | 43.9%229 W · 293 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc0…f02abacked Over | 54c | 929.21$498 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$431.03 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3bc3…0b17backed Over | 57c | 872.85$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$372.85 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cf9…b4cabacked Over | 73c | 778.79$565 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.29 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -65.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49ca…5944backed Over | 77c | 649.35$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.35 | 48 | 58.3%28 W · 20 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0707…310abacked Under | 78c | 631.26$492 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$491.97 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -3.7wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Under | 24c | 457.1$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.8 | 67 | 22.4%15 W · 52 L | -5.3wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 42c | 400.33$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.48 | 769 | 41.9%322 W · 447 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf715…bbf0backed Over | 23c | 300.6$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.94 | 35 | 22.9%8 W · 27 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over | 29c | 268.86$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.89 | 384 | 53.1%204 W · 180 L | +11.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a81…a86bbacked Over | 67c | 268.72$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.72 | 147 | 67.3%99 W · 48 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafc4…daa1backed Under | 13c | 238.19$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.04 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0979…fc8abacked Under | 13c | 235$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.85 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 13cpaid | +87.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 16c | 222.2$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.01 | 179 | 58.1%104 W · 75 L | +17.0wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x86f8…1655backed Over | 55c | 200$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2109…55bfbacked Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb0f…b652backed Under | 28c | 166$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.16 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -3.3wins | -0.14per pick | 32cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Over | 54c | 150.93$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.43 | 218 | 35.8%78 W · 140 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Over | 25c | 130.6$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.11 | 880 | 48.2%424 W · 456 L | +17.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f69…91d6backed Over | 48c | 124.36$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.36 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +103.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Over | 19c | 124.01$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.49 | 1,022 | 47.5%485 W · 537 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Under | 39c | 116.34$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.37 | 178 | 35.4%63 W · 115 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…48c8backed Over | 16c | 112.35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.37 | 155 | 62.6%97 W · 58 L | +22.9wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 47c | 102.13$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.13 | 94 | 43.6%41 W · 53 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0fb…ec4fbacked Over | 20c | 100$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 64c | 78.13$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.13 | 146 | 41.1%60 W · 86 L | -14.7wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6404…2a20backed Under | 41c | 76.59$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.26 | 36 | 16.7%6 W · 30 L | -9.3wins | -0.26per pick | 42cpaid | -70.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 58c | 65.08$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.47 | 178 | 55.6%99 W · 79 L | +14.6wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Over | 19c | 53$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.93 | 379 | 26.1%99 W · 280 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0666…d31abacked Over | 47c | 49.09$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.02 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd47a…4e85backed Over | 55c | 44.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.25 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 65c | 43.16$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.04 | 638 | 57.2%365 W · 273 L | +35.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 80c | 40.05$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.04 | 382 | 47.1%180 W · 202 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 79c | 39$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.85 | 1,573 | 55.7%876 W · 697 L | +25.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Under | 48c | 38$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.24 | 149 | 63.1%94 W · 55 L | +8.7wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc493…9200backed Over | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1813…4dfebacked Under | 76c | 22.87$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.38 | 172 | 49.4%85 W · 87 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaddf…3db9backed Under | 76c | 19.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +55.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb995…7e0cbacked Over | 79c | 15.61$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.28 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 79cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3ac…d6d3backed Over | 79c | 12.95$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Samsunspor vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 3.5this page
- Samsunspor vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Samsunspor vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 1.5Over won
- Samsunspor vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 2.5Over won
- Samsunspor vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Samsunspor (-1.5)Rayo Vallecano de Madrid won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.