Europa Conference League · resolved market
Samsunspor vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x574eff9bf8c240b763b7679b6cfd438bf471454b5719aa434c53bf65efb3a858
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,501
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,501 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x05e3…4b87backed Over | 66c | 2,362$1,559 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$803.12 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2fcb…78cfbacked Under | 34c | 1,500$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 34c | 812.84$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.36 | 382 | 47.1%180 W · 202 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Under | 33c | 788.89$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.39 | 218 | 35.8%78 W · 140 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 34c | 690.34$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.44 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Over | 67c | 656.18$442 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.62 | 234 | 61.5%144 W · 90 L | +26.7wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8609…4897backed Under | 34c | 555.79$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.97 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Under | 34c | 536.85$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.53 | 67 | 22.4%15 W · 52 L | -5.3wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9794…32c9backed Under | 35c | 481.14$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6619…703ebacked Over | 66c | 454.55$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.55 | 54 | 64.8%35 W · 19 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb0…c9f8backed Over | 65c | 302.98$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.04 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed8…6b7fbacked Over | 66c | 289.04$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.27 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 63cpaid | +60.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a8c…1977backed Over | 66c | 265.61$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.31 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bfd…ff86backed Over | 65c | 178.16$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.36 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6882…6f08backed Over | 66c | 151.52$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.52 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb323…cc19backed Over | 66c | 127.27$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.27 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under | 34c | 124.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.5 | 880 | 48.2%424 W · 456 L | +17.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42b3…1df1backed Over | 66c | 124.26$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc770…8dbbbacked Over | 68c | 100$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 92 | 55.4%51 W · 41 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 133 | 37.6%50 W · 83 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 33c | 96.44$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.56 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed Over | 65c | 85.77$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.02 | 195 | 46.2%90 W · 105 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d7e…6be6backed Over | 66c | 75.86$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.86 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x418b…a741backed Over | 66c | 75.76$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.76 | 80 | 62.5%50 W · 30 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0056…a7f7backed Under | 35c | 52.3$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.31 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c67…e838backed Under | 35c | 41$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +2.8wins | +0.19per pick | 34cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2b7d…866bbacked Over | 66c | 37.88$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0095…42c1backed Over | 66c | 37.88$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 34c | 34.79$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.83 | 1,573 | 55.7%876 W · 697 L | +25.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 34c | 33.88$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 1,022 | 47.5%485 W · 537 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb64c…393dbacked Over | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03f5…3047backed Over | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 57 | 52.6%30 W · 27 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18b1…c5c4backed Over | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1813…4dfebacked Under | 36c | 30.08$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 172 | 49.4%85 W · 87 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a9…a428backed Over | 66c | 25.76$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.76 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c8a…e451backed Over | 75c | 25.33$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.33 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe824…65b4backed Over | 65c | 23.2$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.12 | 71 | 56.3%40 W · 31 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2acc…b3c4backed Over | 64c | 21.97$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.91 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaebc…41f2backed Over | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Samsunspor vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 1.5this page
- Samsunspor vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Samsunspor vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 2.5Over won
- Samsunspor vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 3.5Over won
- Samsunspor vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Samsunspor (-1.5)Rayo Vallecano de Madrid won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.