Europa Conference League · resolved market
Samsunspor vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf0e31daa3b2ae3b34cd326c4451524fa9a16a893a6f00ec5723b7132aaa2171d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,430
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,430 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x05e3…4b87backed Over | 36c | 4,358$1,589 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,769.3 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 62c | 3,081$1,913 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,912.58 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d30…a42dbacked Under | 56c | 1,830$1,024 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,024.48 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fcb…78cfbacked Under | 61c | 1,400$857 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$856.87 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 62c | 937.99$582 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$581.55 | 555 | 45.8%254 W · 301 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 44c | 805.89$354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$452.21 | 382 | 47.1%180 W · 202 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeecc…6930backed Over | 39c | 438.46$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.46 | 33 | 21.2%7 W · 26 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6619…703ebacked Over | 39c | 385.6$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.6 | 54 | 64.8%35 W · 19 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf715…bbf0backed Over | 43c | 289$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.73 | 35 | 22.9%8 W · 27 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Over | 45c | 229.86$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.07 | 165 | 43.6%72 W · 93 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0189…cab8backed Over | 43c | 220$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.73 | 55 | 54.5%30 W · 25 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Over | 33c | 218.29$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.19 | 234 | 61.5%144 W · 90 L | +26.7wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8bf3…6077backed Over | 39c | 200$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.2 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x939d…3b3cbacked Over | 38c | 199.99$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…f812backed Over | 39c | 192.31$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.31 | 109 | 41.3%45 W · 64 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3d…e7ebbacked Over | 36c | 138.89$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.89 | 69 | 29%20 W · 49 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9a7…374abacked Over | 39c | 128.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.21 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Over | 37c | 124.71$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.26 | 1,022 | 47.5%485 W · 537 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89e6…5501backed Under | 55c | 123.32$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.83 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc2b0…e756backed Over | 37c | 109.98$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.68 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -34%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefb9…e74fbacked Under | 61c | 100.06$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.14 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc0fb…ec4fbacked Over | 39c | 100$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34f1…5fd6backed Over | 39c | 100$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.25per pick | 35cpaid | +112.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 38c | 99.99$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 133 | 37.6%50 W · 83 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a94…769cbacked Over | 47c | 94.13$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.13 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e78…70c7backed Under | 62c | 93.79$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.15 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 55cpaid | -41%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Under | 62c | 90.23$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.96 | 218 | 35.8%78 W · 140 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe857…cb6abacked Under | 63c | 79.43$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…bbcabacked Over | 46c | 74.99$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.5 | 239 | 49.4%118 W · 121 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0707…310abacked Under | 68c | 69$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.92 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -3.7wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Over | 37c | 66.32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.78 | 880 | 48.2%424 W · 456 L | +17.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbaca…49e6backed Over | 39c | 64.1$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.1 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36e1…2ee8backed Over | 39c | 64.1$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.1 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.8wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +43.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 62c | 63.42$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.49 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 53c | 57.89$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.68 | 1,316 | 50.8%668 W · 648 L | +33.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c93…0fb8backed Under | 63c | 57.55$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.42 | 46 | 63%29 W · 17 L | +4.4wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8948…7e5ebacked Over | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.28 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -3.0wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc770…8dbbbacked Over | 39c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.55 | 92 | 55.4%51 W · 41 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60c2…8052backed Over | 39c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.55 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Over | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c80…6f38backed Over | 42c | 42.86$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.86 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +5.1wins | +0.15per pick | 40cpaid | +32%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8a81…a86bbacked Over | 80c | 37.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 147 | 67.3%99 W · 48 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Under | 58c | 37.29$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.56 | 67 | 22.4%15 W · 52 L | -5.3wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 52c | 34.28$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.83 | 449 | 52.6%236 W · 213 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe824…65b4backed Over | 38c | 32.7$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.27 | 71 | 56.3%40 W · 31 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe851…9471backed Under | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +4.0wins | +0.23per pick | 53cpaid | +46.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3d4d…7fdbbacked Over | 44c | 31.82$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8614…ffc6backed Over | 39c | 30.08$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.35 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf89c…bfc1backed Under | 55c | 29.15$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1813…4dfebacked Over | 47c | 28$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.84 | 172 | 49.4%85 W · 87 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f82…3ba8backed Over | 46c | 25.79$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.89 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +116.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Under | 64c | 25.43$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.27 | 179 | 56.4%101 W · 78 L | +13.4wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x488c…a2dabacked Under | 63c | 23.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 87 | 50.6%44 W · 43 L | -6.8wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d67…4d1fbacked Under | 55c | 21.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6203…5544backed Under | 51c | 20.41$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 57c | 19.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.76 | 1,573 | 55.7%876 W · 697 L | +25.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Samsunspor vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 2.5this page
- Samsunspor vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Samsunspor vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 1.5Over won
- Samsunspor vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 3.5Over won
- Samsunspor vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Samsunspor (-1.5)Rayo Vallecano de Madrid won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.