MLB · resolved market
Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x755b192ccbfc5274a27feec60f99d80f67a608cc34e71fa6b0647e62a271ee13
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Miami Marlinsof Miami Marlins, Chicago White Sox
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,416
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,583
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,416 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Chicago White Sox | 58c | 782.93$457 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$456.93 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…4a2cbacked Chicago White Sox | 49c | 620.08$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.78 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Chicago White Sox | 59c | 553.8$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.21 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Miami Marlins | 51c | 500$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…6084backed Miami Marlins | 42c | 482.6$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.91 | 591 | 50.3%297 W · 294 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Chicago White Sox | 59c | 357.34$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.83 | 650 | 50.3%327 W · 323 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed Miami Marlins | 41c | 272.91$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.02 | 664 | 48.2%320 W · 344 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52f2…5a5dbacked Miami Marlins | 41c | 190.12$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.17 | 111 | 53.2%59 W · 52 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Chicago White Sox | 52c | 143.69$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.5 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04eb…f50dbacked Chicago White Sox | 58c | 142.3$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.54 | 187 | 54%101 W · 86 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9b…bc4abacked Miami Marlins | 42c | 129.81$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.62 | 564 | 40.4%228 W · 336 L | -16.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…d080backed Miami Marlins | 41c | 128.29$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.69 | 142 | 45.8%65 W · 77 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Chicago White Sox | 59c | 126.8$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.81 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Miami Marlins | 35c | 124.17$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.79 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7634…600dbacked Miami Marlins | 42c | 100$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 603 | 50.1%302 W · 301 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Chicago White Sox | 58c | 78.43$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.49 | 678 | 49.3%334 W · 344 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e40…cf85backed Miami Marlins | 42c | 75.98$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.07 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.6wins | +0.26per pick | 44cpaid | +53.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcc72…cd13backed Miami Marlins | 42c | 69.86$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.52 | 344 | 43.9%151 W · 193 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Chicago White Sox | 75c | 59.35$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.29 | 1,041 | 50.1%522 W · 519 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Miami Marlins | 57c | 48.71$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.95 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Chicago White Sox | 40c | 37.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Miami Marlins | 53c | 33.19$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 1,912 | 53%1,014 W · 898 L | +42.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a8c…880abacked Chicago White Sox | 59c | 32.47$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.16 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -3.8wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9e13…b909backed Miami Marlins | 42c | 28.96$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.79 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfae5…f940backed Miami Marlins | 55c | 27.17$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 816 | 51.8%423 W · 393 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Miami Marlins | 46c | 25.71$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.78 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ca…e04dbacked Chicago White Sox | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | -3.8wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1489…9924backed Chicago White Sox | 58c | 19.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 185 | 53%98 W · 87 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)this page
- Chicago White Sox vs. Miami MarlinsMiami Marlins won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5Over won
- NRFI: Chicago White Sox vs. Miami MarlinsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.