MLB · resolved market
NRFI: Chicago White Sox vs. Miami Marlins
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb377d3bb65605fa6a9d8dda1e5497f580fa95c1210aced94c1ff94e2db5ec71c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,022
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,110
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,022 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Yes | 52c | 880.68$458 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$422.73 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed No | 48c | 508.62$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.14 | 73 | 39.7%29 W · 44 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Yes | 51c | 387.06$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.66 | 672 | 50.1%337 W · 335 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed No | 49c | 217.62$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.63 | 443 | 48.5%215 W · 228 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked No | 48c | 216$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.68 | 465 | 47.1%219 W · 246 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…d080backed No | 48c | 188.01$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.24 | 142 | 45.8%65 W · 77 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked No | 49c | 120.87$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.17 | 509 | 49.5%252 W · 257 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1379…e6b8backed No | 49c | 120$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.8 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1489…9924backed Yes | 51c | 111.62$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.69 | 185 | 53%98 W · 87 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked No | 25c | 95$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.28 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18c9…0d17backed Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed No | 50c | 46.46$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.23 | 89 | 48.3%43 W · 46 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Yes | 53c | 42.76$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.1 | 625 | 54.2%339 W · 286 L | +23.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x817c…fb78backed No | 49c | 26.45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40d2…312fbacked Yes | 50c | 23.64$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.82 | 228 | 51.3%117 W · 111 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9348…8cfbbacked No | 51c | 20.41$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 62 | 43.5%27 W · 35 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- NRFI: Chicago White Sox vs. Miami Marlinsthis page
- Chicago White Sox vs. Miami MarlinsMiami Marlins won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5Over won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)Miami Marlins won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.