Tweets · resolved market
Will CZ post 20-39 posts from June 30 to July 7, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x756afdafcd1631ddcf4aa5a95e116dad0bde899b2af9dafded4c21f357f1d2ca
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,610
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,869
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,610 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x564f…7026backed Yes | 14c | 1,076$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$922.48 | 312 | 42.9%134 W · 178 L | +21.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x817f…bf28backed Yes | 21c | 780.21$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$619.67 | 63 | 47.6%30 W · 33 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed Yes | 15c | 258.94$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.68 | 75 | 40%30 W · 45 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f27…2582backed No | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d5f…b380backed Yes | 41c | 183.19$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.81 | 430 | 27%116 W · 314 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 7c | 172.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.01 | 60 | 30%18 W · 42 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 70c | 153.84$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.13 | 510 | 18.2%93 W · 417 L | -89.7wins | -0.18per pick | 36cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xaee8…1154backed Yes | 74c | 153.5$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.64 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa5ff…d69fbacked No | 29c | 148.66$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.56 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 67c | 146.11$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.22 | 88 | 31.8%28 W · 60 L | -9.0wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed Yes | 34c | 105$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.3 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | -4.0wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…fb48backed No | 24c | 60$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | -4.1wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed No | 80c | 51$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.8 | 292 | 25%73 W · 219 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed No | 58c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 66 | 51.5%34 W · 32 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb431…82ecbacked Yes | 70c | 46.5$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.03 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9eae…98a5backed Yes | 66c | 38.9$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.32 | 130 | 38.5%50 W · 80 L | -11.6wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb119…680bbacked No | 62c | 33.35$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.75 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 71cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 71c | 30.18$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.46 | 190 | 53.7%102 W · 88 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 41c | 29$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.11 | 2,160 | 3.9%85 W · 2,075 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed No | 66c | 27.92$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.43 | 74 | 45.9%34 W · 40 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7d8…a8cebacked No | 58c | 27$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.66 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78c5…f623backed Yes | 53c | 26.65$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.66 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -3.1wins | -0.17per pick | 45cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ef…ebcabacked Yes | 77c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 37 | 73%27 W · 10 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4462…bfdfbacked No | 64c | 24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.36 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 74cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7843…fd3cbacked Yes | 58c | 21.78$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.11 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 75c | 20.2$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.05 | 275 | 47.6%131 W · 144 L | +9.9wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd615…ae32backed Yes | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will CZ post 20-39 posts from June 30 to July 7, 2026?this page
- Will CZ post 0-19 posts from June 30 to July 7, 2026?No won
- Will CZ post 40-59 posts from June 30 to July 7, 2026?No won
- Will CZ post 60-79 posts from June 30 to July 7, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.