NHL · resolved market
Spread: Penguins (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x757b754f436236d3b46c81b7c666c19c784e8d835dbb0b9f689616ffbf04b5f3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Blue Jacketsof Penguins, Blue Jackets
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,088
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,123
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,088 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x106b…4e8bbacked Penguins | 34c | 27,404$9,317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,317.26 | 72 | 36.1%26 W · 46 L | -7.9wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Blue Jackets | 66c | 12,500$8,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,250 | 1,441 | 49.2%709 W · 732 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Blue Jackets | 66c | 9,940$6,560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,379.6 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Blue Jackets | 66c | 4,638$3,058 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,580.21 | 1,679 | 54.4%914 W · 765 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Blue Jackets | 66c | 399.99$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136 | 1,143 | 50.8%581 W · 562 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Blue Jackets | 66c | 289.13$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.3 | 561 | 52%292 W · 269 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked Penguins | 35c | 250$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.5 | 541 | 32.7%177 W · 364 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd730…1948backed Blue Jackets | 68c | 72.64$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.91 | 100 | 59%59 W · 41 L | +6.7wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +15%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Blue Jackets | 66c | 53.53$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.2 | 740 | 54.5%403 W · 337 L | +22.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf67…fc18backed Penguins | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 125 | 45.6%57 W · 68 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Blue Jackets | 68c | 43.9$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.05 | 786 | 51.8%407 W · 379 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Penguins | 32c | 43.38$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.88 | 451 | 51.2%231 W · 220 L | +16.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3da1…c13bbacked Penguins | 35c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 366 | 48.9%179 W · 187 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe31…6573backed Penguins | 34c | 30.41$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 210 | 42.4%89 W · 121 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Blue Jackets | 68c | 23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.36 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Penguins (-1.5)this page
- Blue Jackets vs. PenguinsBlue Jackets won
- Blue Jackets vs. Penguins: O/U 6.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.