Tennis · resolved market
Oeiras 4: Francesca Curmi vs Alisa Oktiabreva
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x75c31882108fa00b2a0c9734c0cc9545dce9a2368bfe1566adfada5fde18262f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Alisa Oktiabrevaof Francesca Curmi, Alisa Oktiabreva
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,766
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,528
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,766 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x710c…78eabacked Alisa Oktiabreva | 76c | 9,398$7,164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,233.76 | 1,040 | 58.2%605 W · 435 L | -17.6wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Francesca Curmi | 29c | 8,768$2,549 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,548.56 | 8,828 | 36.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L | -193.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Francesca Curmi | 18c | 8,702$1,582 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,582.19 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Alisa Oktiabreva | 78c | 3,698$2,903 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$795.37 | 4,533 | 67.7%3,071 W · 1,462 L | +306.6wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x42c9…9623backed Francesca Curmi | 29c | 2,840$823 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$823.01 | 4,703 | 49.4%2,323 W · 2,380 L | +166.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f8d…8b2cbacked Francesca Curmi | 17c | 848.94$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.03 | 380 | 13.9%53 W · 327 L | -38.3wins | -0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked Alisa Oktiabreva | 54c | 827.71$447 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380.27 | 2,523 | 39.6%1,000 W · 1,523 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Francesca Curmi | 21c | 744.46$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.46 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Francesca Curmi | 16c | 395.72$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.32 | 3,072 | 44.9%1,378 W · 1,694 L | -30.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -23%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf96d…20bebacked Francesca Curmi | 12c | 333.69$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.42 | 482 | 14.1%68 W · 414 L | -14.8wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Alisa Oktiabreva | 71c | 304.95$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.69 | 2,761 | 53.9%1,487 W · 1,274 L | +73.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Alisa Oktiabreva | 77c | 281.77$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.81 | 1,923 | 55.4%1,066 W · 857 L | -44.9wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd038…8f51backed Francesca Curmi | 20c | 220.96$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.87 | 4,288 | 40.5%1,737 W · 2,551 L | -139.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Francesca Curmi | 31c | 183.27$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.72 | 1,532 | 40.7%624 W · 908 L | -48.7wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2be0…6deebacked Francesca Curmi | 13c | 133.23$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.37 | 44 | 31.8%14 W · 30 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -30%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e41…b875backed Alisa Oktiabreva | 75c | 131.33$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.83 | 711 | 65.1%463 W · 248 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Francesca Curmi | 19c | 118.6$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.53 | 350 | 32.3%113 W · 237 L | -9.8wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Francesca Curmi | 19c | 115.42$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.03 | 1,354 | 43.9%595 W · 759 L | -62.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Alisa Oktiabreva | 71c | 102.36$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.59 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e38…1b52backed Francesca Curmi | 20c | 99.01$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 619 | 24.4%151 W · 468 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26d6…caccbacked Francesca Curmi | 22c | 88.04$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.07 | 1,487 | 47.5%706 W · 781 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -21%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Francesca Curmi | 33c | 83.31$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.25 | 3,270 | 13.8%450 W · 2,820 L | -549.1wins | -0.17per pick | 31cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x1c39…442dbacked Francesca Curmi | 25c | 78.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 568 | 17.4%99 W · 469 L | -74.2wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Alisa Oktiabreva | 56c | 76.69$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.41 | 450 | 51.8%233 W · 217 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56df…edc2backed Francesca Curmi | 21c | 76.48$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.42 | 48 | 33.3%16 W · 32 L | +4.7wins | +0.10per pick | 24cpaid | +50.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Francesca Curmi | 25c | 75.68$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.92 | 2,229 | 45%1,002 W · 1,227 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Francesca Curmi | 15c | 74.94$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 3,677 | 54.8%2,015 W · 1,662 L | +107.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa41…2239backed Alisa Oktiabreva | 62c | 67.92$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.81 | 157 | 51%80 W · 77 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5d0…39f3backed Francesca Curmi | 29c | 66.73$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.15 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf876…8975backed Francesca Curmi | 20c | 62.7$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.73 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe6…a99fbacked Francesca Curmi | 31c | 60.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 753 | 12.2%92 W · 661 L | -21.3wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe53…2dbabacked Alisa Oktiabreva | 71c | 58.96$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 882 | 73.5%648 W · 234 L | +19.8wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Francesca Curmi | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 3,901 | 50.1%1,953 W · 1,948 L | -13.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2fe…09c9backed Francesca Curmi | 34c | 49.71$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 220 | 49.5%109 W · 111 L | -8.6wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf512…5198backed Alisa Oktiabreva | 68c | 47.66$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.25 | 572 | 67.3%385 W · 187 L | +33.5wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Alisa Oktiabreva | 75c | 39.4$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 2,561 | 63%1,613 W · 948 L | -10.2wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb69…c3e5backed Alisa Oktiabreva | 74c | 36.87$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.59 | 1,076 | 55.5%597 W · 479 L | +8.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a72…0a38backed Alisa Oktiabreva | 55c | 32$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 452 | 35.8%162 W · 290 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f6a…9888backed Alisa Oktiabreva | 70c | 28.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.51 | 1,222 | 55%672 W · 550 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x354f…95f8backed Alisa Oktiabreva | 75c | 26.27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.57 | 63 | 60.3%38 W · 25 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe36…9413backed Alisa Oktiabreva | 77c | 13.57$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.1 | 313 | 58.5%183 W · 130 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.