Token Launches · resolved market
Will Friend.Tech airdrop by Thursday?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x75d84fd0eddecff7734a24d3b6a38f64c5a7e8890c1bd6bc3e5eb42e704f727e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $161,689
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $145,458
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $161,689 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 3c | 25,026$661 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$660.83 | 67 | 13.4%9 W · 58 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -74.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe17…98e9backed Yes | 0c | 24,087$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.09 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c88…c405backed Yes | 0c | 10,870$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…e414backed Yes | 33c | 8,692$2,859 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,859.3 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7789…f823backed Yes | 0c | 4,970$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 53 | 15.1%8 W · 45 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd42f…047dbacked Yes | 5c | 4,290$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.93 | 56 | 17.9%10 W · 46 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf612…5700backed Yes | 26c | 2,804$716 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$715.62 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84f9…0285backed Yes | 1c | 2,115$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.26 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x209c…d319backed Yes | 30c | 835$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.55 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64ae…d9e7backed No | 17c | 597.37$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$494.37 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | +93.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7e…4562backed Yes | 77c | 565$432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$432.3 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…01cebacked Yes | 9c | 502.46$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.72 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c4c…cb39backed No | 28c | 441.63$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320.07 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35c9…e792backed No | 26c | 283.23$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.56 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed No | 16c | 200$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168 | 84 | 8.3%7 W · 77 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x296b…2cf2backed No | 66c | 200$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f5…1757backed No | 40c | 197.5$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.5 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 21cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf3…87b3backed Yes | 12c | 171$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.11 | 39 | 2.6%1 W · 38 L | -4.5wins | -0.12per pick | 14cpaid | -96.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…ebc1backed Yes | 8c | 160$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.18 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -62.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe4a…bc74backed No | 30c | 133.33$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.33 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +20%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e47…b580backed No | 50c | 96.98$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.49 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64cf…8a8abacked Yes | 33c | 65$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c1…16b0backed No | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 11cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe46b…b3d5backed Yes | 43c | 46.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cf5…8116backed Yes | 49c | 32.39$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.