Ligue 1 · resolved market
ES Troyes AC vs. Paris FC: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x75f690376a68cee467b33eb9b2023fcf17469767ffae8ff71588f731ca2dce3e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,352
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,326
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,352 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 52c | 1,288$671 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$616.81 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65b5…aa71backed Over | 55c | 999.98$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$549.99 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -5.1wins | -0.28per pick | 62cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 46c | 935$430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$504.9 | 243 | 49.4%120 W · 123 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 54c | 885$478 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$477.9 | 304 | 48%146 W · 158 L | -10.7wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked Over | 14c | 124.87$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.86 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Over | 54c | 109.99$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.69 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6534…7cc7backed Under | 46c | 103$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.62 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +4.5wins | +0.24per pick | 45cpaid | +117.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3546…1a58backed Over | 35c | 85.71$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…bbcabacked Over | 45c | 77$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.65 | 240 | 51.7%124 W · 116 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 55c | 75.62$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.59 | 183 | 51.4%94 W · 89 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Over | 54c | 74.22$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.08 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37b0…799fbacked Under | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 45c | 42.09$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.15 | 58 | 60.3%35 W · 23 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 54c | 39.83$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.46 | 525 | 50.1%263 W · 262 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac5…f963backed Over | 54c | 39.31$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.23 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked Under | 72c | 36$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.08 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Over | 56c | 30.3$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.97 | 380 | 56.6%215 W · 165 L | +11.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadd8…53c9backed Under | 46c | 30.04$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Over | 54c | 27.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- ES Troyes AC vs. Paris FC: O/U 2.5this page
- ES Troyes AC vs. Paris FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- ES Troyes AC vs. Paris FC: O/U 0.5Under won
- ES Troyes AC vs. Paris FC: O/U 1.5Under won
- ES Troyes AC vs. Paris FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- ES Troyes AC vs. Paris FC: O/U 5.5Under won
- ES Troyes AC vs. Paris FC: Paris FC O/U 0.5Under won
- Spread: ES Troyes AC (-1.5)Paris FC won
- Spread: Paris FC (-2.5)ES Troyes AC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.