UFC · resolved market
Will Donte Johnson win by KO or TKO?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7607f3986484f0f02f2aba290224c289e9f993a0b3e9477c8d417af8e763ff83
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,484
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,316
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,484 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x807f…9615backed No | 45c | 1,000$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 95 | 47.4%45 W · 50 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf0f…3f10backed Yes | 55c | 1,000$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c0…722ebacked No | 47c | 909.36$427 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$427.4 | 75 | 45.3%34 W · 41 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b29…8373backed No | 45c | 697.5$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.43 | 209 | 33.5%70 W · 139 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x767a…8ac5backed Yes | 55c | 410.22$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.6 | 150 | 48.7%73 W · 77 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc1…4b17backed Yes | 57c | 395.03$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.03 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.24per pick | 54cpaid | +51.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e3…4d7ebacked No | 46c | 381.65$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.75 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x776f…32b7backed Yes | 53c | 315.09$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.09 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07b3…20fbbacked Yes | 53c | 283.02$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.02 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -3.4wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9698…2504backed Yes | 53c | 185.19$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.04 | 78 | 42.3%33 W · 45 L | -4.6wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e59…7b8bbacked No | 42c | 184.03$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.29 | 223 | 48.4%108 W · 115 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61d4…3593backed Yes | 62c | 98.43$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.78 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | +3.8wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b90…672ebacked Yes | 54c | 91.44$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.06 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb77b…bd70backed Yes | 56c | 89.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.04 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +67.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…ef8bbacked Yes | 53c | 75.47$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.47 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c5d…da56backed Yes | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.69 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +3.5wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e3…b82ebacked Yes | 54c | 55.56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.56 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +2.5wins | +0.14per pick | 62cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4838…0db9backed No | 51c | 45.2$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.05 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.5wins | -0.42per pick | 59cpaid | -78.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6c43…fb9bbacked No | 44c | 39.2$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 64 | 56.3%36 W · 28 L | +7.2wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7323…e60cbacked Yes | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Yes | 49c | 35$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.85 | 82 | 53.7%44 W · 38 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb129…c058backed Yes | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked No | 46c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 381 | 53.5%204 W · 177 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 56c | 24.91$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.96 | 267 | 36%96 W · 171 L | -16.6wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x51f7…ae1fbacked No | 46c | 22.23$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 223 | 34.1%76 W · 147 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x873b…343bbacked Yes | 53c | 20.75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x526d…8730backed Yes | 55c | 19.89$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.95 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +60%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Donte Johnson win by KO or TKO?this page
- Fight to Go the Distance?No won
- O/U 0.5 RoundsUnder won
- O/U 1.5 RoundsUnder won
- O/U 2.5 RoundsUnder won
- UFC 330: Eric McConico vs. Donte Johnson (Middleweight, Early Prelims)Donte Johnson won
- Will the fight be won by submission?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.